Sensient Technologies Corporation (NYSE:SXT) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ghansham Panjabi: Okay, terrific. And then in terms of 2024, I mean, obviously a lot going on, but you seem a little bit more optimistic on new product wins. And clearly destocking will be, hopefully in the very beginning here. What is your base case in terms of assumption in terms of volumes for 2024 and any other variances that you could highlight in terms of on a year-over-year bridge basis as we sort of finalize our estimates for 2024?

Paul Manning: Yes, I think 2024 will be back on track. As you saw this year, things can be patchy. When the market is as volatile as it has been in ‘23 in a transition year, things can be a little bit patchy in terms of one quarter from the next. So but I think the overall picture in 2024 will be quite good. If nothing else, destocking can’t go on forever. And destocking has been a massive headwind in 2023. So I think that would be data point number one, which tells you that we would be back on track in ‘24 in a much more profound way than you’re seeing right now. I think the other thing, our win rate remains at historically high levels. Our win rates in flavors and colors, I was very, very impressed with our win rates last year.

We had record win rates in each of the three groups, and they continue to build on that success. So the annals of things that you can control just win, that’s working out pretty, pretty well. And unfortunately, it’s being optically disguised by a lot of this market reduction in inventory positions, which is not the whole heck of a lot we can do. But I have every degree of confidence based on the ongoing win rate, the size of the pipelines that we have, the trends that we’re driving towards, that win rates will continue to be rather robust in 2024. It is a big, big focus of this company. Top line, putting customers first, and really spend your time on the things that your customers care about, as opposed to goofy internal things that your customers don’t care about.

So we’re very, very disciplined about that type of approach. And I think that will continue. We’ll probably get a little bit more price in 2024, while inflation has moderated, it is not entirely out of the picture. Many commodities have reduced, but labor is still up. There are other input costs that are still elevated. That may vary by geography, but I think we’ll continue to do quite well there. But I think there’s also, as we’ve been looking at a lot of market research organizations, there’s expectation that volume in the market should flatten out. As I’ve been telling on these conference calls for the last few years, market volumes in the Americas have been negative for, we’re going on kind of two years now. And Europe is now, for the last couple quarters, has a small positive volume growth there in the market, which is a very nice thing to see.

But the expectations for most of the third-party providers that we look at here is that volumes should at least be flat coming out of a lot of these consumer categories. That in as much as CPGs have begun in earnest programs around promotion activity, spending more marketing dollars to support and elevate their brands, that should translate into, I’m not asking for a lot, just neutral would be great. So those would be sort of say four or five of the key inputs that tells me we’re back on track in ‘24 and that we’ve sort of, we’ve got a lot of good underlining, inherent aspects of our business, but a lot of these external factors kind of fade away because like I said, they can’t go on forever.

Operator: Our next question comes from Joan Lim from BNP Paribas.

Joan Lim: Hello. Hi, I had two questions. So on your guidance, I was just wondering, why was there no downgrade on your EBITDA, despite the downgrade on the top line? And on a similar vein, what is driving that EPS downgrade when you haven’t changed your EBITDA guidance? That is my first question.