SAP SE (SAP): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on SAP SE (SAP) on Substack by FluentInQuality. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SAP. SAP SE (SAP)’s share was trading at $292.55 as of April 29^th. SAP’s trailing and forward P/E were 52.96 and 41.67 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

SAP SE (SAP) isn’t flashy, but it’s foundational—powering the global economy behind the scenes with software that acts less like a vendor and more like core infrastructure. With over 400,000 enterprises relying on SAP for mission-critical functions across manufacturing, logistics, finance, and HR, the company has embedded itself so deeply that switching providers is akin to changing an airplane engine mid-flight. Its ERP suite, led by S/4HANA, isn’t simply a cloud migration—it’s a full-scale operational rearchitecture. With over 25 vertical-specific modules and end-to-end integrations, SAP has transitioned into the real enterprise cloud story, not by chasing trends, but by delivering deeply embedded solutions tailored to the complexities of modern global businesses. This deep integration has created a customer base with unusually high stickiness, leading to a recurring cloud backlog that now accounts for more than 80% of total revenues. The result: once customers are on board, there’s effectively no escape velocity.

SAP’s long-term pivot to the cloud is now bearing fruit. Cloud revenue is the fastest-growing segment, and as subscription models scale, gross margins are expanding. Operational efficiencies are surfacing, freeing capital for investment in high-leverage areas like artificial intelligence and R&D. Unlike companies using AI as a buzzword, SAP is embedding it strategically where it can generate tangible outcomes—automating invoice reconciliations, forecasting industrial demand, and driving ESG and procurement insights. SAP’s AI isn’t built for show—it’s purpose-built for results. The company is steadily evolving from a legacy software giant into a lean, cloud-first platform focused on profitable compounding.

The business case is further reinforced by SAP’s handling of enterprise-scale problems. When global supply chains break, SAP is what holds them together. When compliance becomes a labyrinth, SAP untangles it. Its software addresses the kind of logic where failure isn’t an inconvenience—it’s a catastrophe. This ability to manage extreme complexity at scale, without compromising on performance or reliability, makes SAP indispensable.

SAP’s transformation is now at a critical inflection point. With rising margins, deep-rooted enterprise relationships, and increasing AI-led efficiencies, the company is positioned not for a speculative boom, but for a durable and scalable ascent. It’s not a startup or a moonshot—it’s the software empire underlying the world’s business empires, quietly compounding in value as the backbone of the global digital economy.

SAP SE (SAP) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held SAP at the end of the fourth quarter which was 36 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of SAP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SAP but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.