Ryder System, Inc. (NYSE:R) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Rental utilization on the power fleet of 75% was in our mid- to high 70s range but down from prior year record levels of 83%. Lower utilization was partially offset by a 1% increase in power fleet pricing. Despite a weaker used vehicle sales and rental environment, Fleet Management EBT as a percent of operating revenue remained strong at 13.4% in the third quarter, at the high end of the segment’s long-term target of low double digits. For the trailing 12-month period, it was above target at 15.4%. Page 9 highlights used vehicle sales results in North America for the quarter. As anticipated, market conditions for used vehicle sales continue to weaken from elevated levels in the prior year. Compared with prior year, used tractor proceeds declined 31% and used truck proceeds declined 30%, reflecting weaker freight conditions.

On a sequential basis, proceeds for tractors decreased 8% and proceeds for trucks decreased 6%, both better than our expectations. During the quarter, we sold 6,500 used vehicles, up sequentially and versus prior year. Used vehicle inventory increased to 7,800 vehicles at quarter end, and remains in line with our target inventory levels of 7,000 to 9,000 units. Increased sales volumes and inventory levels reflect higher lease replacement and rental de-fleeting activity. Although used vehicle pricing declined, proceeds remain above residual value estimates used for depreciation purposes. Slide 21 of the appendix provides historical sales proceeds and current residual value estimates for used tractors and trucks for your information. Turning to Supply Chain on Page 10.

Operating revenue increased 9%, reflecting new business and increased pricing. Double-digit revenue growth in automotive, consumer packaged goods and industrial verticals more than offset softer volumes in our omnichannel retail vertical. Supply chain earnings increased 14%, reflecting operating revenue growth and lower incentive-based compensation costs, partially offset by lower volumes in the omnichannel retail vertical. Supply Chain EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 9% in the quarter, at the high end of the segment’s high single-digit target range. Moving to Dedicated on Page 11. Operating revenue increased 3%, primarily reflecting the recovery of inflationary costs. Dedicated EBT was generally in line with prior year. EBT benefited from inflationary rate increases, partially offset by lower gains on sales and vehicles.

We continue to see favorable driver conditions as the number of open positions and time to fill for our professional drivers improve. Dedicated EBT as a percentage of operating revenue of 8.5% in the quarter was in line with the segment’s high single-digit target. We expect slower contract sales activity in Dedicated in the near term, consistent with a softer freight environment. As previously noted, we expect 2023 segment revenue growth to be below our high single-digit target range. Segment EBT percent is expected to remain in line with our high single-digit target range for the remainder of the year. Turning to Slide 12. Year-to-date lease capital spending of $2 billion was up from prior year, reflecting increased lease replacement and growth activity as well as the accelerated timing of OEM vehicle deliveries.

Year-to-date, rental capital spending of $388 million was below prior year as planned. Our 2023 forecast for lease capital spending of $2.6 billion reflects higher lease replacement and growth capital versus prior year. Lease growth is expected to be lower than our prior forecast as customers delayed decisions in the current environment. We now expect the ending lease fleet to be up approximately 5,000 vehicles versus prior year while ending active fleet is expected to be up approximately 2,500 vehicles, reflecting an elongated delivery cycle for trucks. Delivery time frames for tractors are now at normal levels. In rental, our ending fleet is now expected to be down 13% or 5,300 vehicles, reflecting higher rental deployment activity. Our full-year 2023 capital expenditures forecast of approximately $3.2 billion is unchanged from our prior forecast.

We continue to expect proceeds from the sale of used vehicles of approximately $800 million in 2023, down from prior year, which included $400 million of proceeds related to the U.K. exit for the full-year. Full-year 2023 net capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $2.4 billion. Turning to Slide 13. Our 2023 full-year forecast for free cash flow is unchanged at approximately $100 million and reflects the accelerated timing of OEM deliveries and the corresponding increase to lease capital expenditures. The forecast for operating cash flow remains at $2.5 billion. As shown, the trajectory of our cash flow continues to improve over time, reflecting growth in our contractual supply chain, dedicated and lease businesses which comprise over 85% of Ryder’s operating revenue.

Free cash flow profile has changed significantly since the implementation of our balanced growth strategy. Since 2020, lower targeted lease growth as well as the COVID effects and OEM delays resulted in lower capital spending and higher free cash flow. Proceeds from the exit of the U.K. FMS business also benefited free cash flow in 2022. The summary on the right side of the slide illustrates the strong free cash flow generated by the business prior to investing in fleet growth. In 2023, we expect to generate approximately $100 million in free cash flow and prior to investing in growth capital, this number is expected to be approximately $500 million. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and are focused on supporting our strategy to drive long-term profitable growth and return capital to shareholders.

Our top priority is to continue to invest in organic growth. Strategic acquisitions have been a key contributor to accelerated growth in SCS and have helped transform our Supply Chain business in terms of expanding capabilities as well as rebalancing our vertical mix. Balance sheet leverage of 214% was below our 250% to 300% target and continues to provide ample capacity to fund organic growth and targeted acquisitions as well as to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Robert to discuss our enhanced asset management playbook and outlook.

Robert Sanchez: Thanks, John. Slide 14 provides key highlights from our enhanced asset management playbook, which is focused on optimizing returns over the cycle from our transactional used vehicle sales and rental businesses. In response to weakening used vehicle and rental demand, we are redeploying underutilized rental vehicles to fulfill Lease, Dedicated and Supply Chain contracts. In 2023, we expect to redeploy between 3,000 and 4,000 units to align our rental fleet with demand conditions. This elevated level of redeployment activity is enabling us to fulfill these contracts sooner and is also contributing to lease fleet growth. We expect rental power fleet utilization for the full-year 2023 to be at the lower end of our target range of mid- to high 70s.

In used vehicle sales, we’re leveraging our expanded retail sales network. Since 2019, we’ve increased our retail sales capacity by 50% by adding physical locations and increasing our inside sales team to capture digital sales opportunities. Increasing retail sales volume benefits results as wholesale proceeds have historically been at a 30% discount to retail proceeds. And finally, we continue to shift our vehicle mix in rental towards trucks where we see stronger demand trends that have historically been more resilient than those of tractors. We’ve reduced our 2023 rental tractor fleet by 18%. By year-end 2023, we expect that trucks will be approximately 60% of the North American rental fleet, up from 49% in 2018. Although earnings will be impacted by the freight environment, the successful execution of our enhanced asset management playbook has enabled us to effectively manage through the 2023 freight down cycle and generate higher earnings in each phase of the cycle.

Turning to Slide 15. In addition to managing through the downturn, we’re also focused on positioning the business to benefit from the cycle upturn. Although the majority of our revenue is supported by long-term contracts that generate relatively stable and predictable cash flows over the cycle, each business segment has opportunities to benefit from the cycle upturn. The majority of our cyclical exposure resides in fleet management with rental and used vehicle sales. Our enhanced asset management playbook has been focused on managing these transactional businesses during the freight downturn, while also positioning them to benefit from the cycle upturn. Improved freight conditions should increase demand for rental and used vehicles. In rental, we intend to grow the fleet as we approach the cyclical upturn to capture this incremental revenue and margin opportunity.

In used vehicle sales, we’ll continue to leverage our expanded retail sales network in order to maximize proceeds with the potential to generate used vehicle gains above normalized levels. An additional opportunity on the horizon for FMS is the potential pre-buy activity ahead of the 2027 EPA engine technology changes. The industry is generally expecting some level of pre-buy activity given the expected impact on upfront cost and maintenance cost implications. Based on what we see today, pre-buy activity could begin as soon as 2025 as we have historically seen higher levels of fleet growth a couple of years ahead of a change. We also would expect used vehicle pricing to be supported by demand for the old emissions technology. Increased engine complexity and costs generally favor the outsourcing decision, which would benefit lease sales activity.