RBC Lowers Nike (NKE) Target but Sees Path to Profitable Growth Intact

NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) is included among the 12 Best DOW Stocks to Buy in 2026.

On January 6, RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target on NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) to $78 from $85 and kept an Outperform rating. The firm said Nike’s path to profitable growth remains intact, even if the timeline has stretched. Pressure from Greater China, weakness at Converse, and US tariffs are weighing on margins, the analyst wrote. Even after 8%–10% estimate cuts, RBC still expects about $3 in EPS by FY28. Recent share price declines have pulled the valuation closer to historical averages, and insider buying adds to the setup.

NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) shares are down nearly 17% in 2025. A big concern is how dependent the company has become on China. That relationship has paid off for decades. Roughly 18% of Nike’s footwear is still produced in China, a figure that was likely higher in earlier years. Lower-cost manufacturing helped the company control expenses and lift margins over much of its public history.

Over time, that same model carries trade-offs. Outsourced manufacturing can lead to technology transfer and brand dilution. According to ABC, Nike shoes rank among the most counterfeited products globally. Replicas have become so convincing that even experts struggle to spot the difference. Manufacturing know-how and materials are no longer concentrated, and Nike’s wide supply chain may be part of that story.

The impact is showing up in results. Nike’s footwear sales in China fell 20% in the fiscal second quarter, marking a sixth straight quarter of decline in what was once a core growth market.

NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) designs, markets, and distributes athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and related services for sports and fitness worldwide.

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Disclosure: None.