Rayonier Inc. (NYSE:RYN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Paul Quinn: Okay. That’s helpful. And then I’m just trying to understand this — these carbon markets in New Zealand. What — it sounds like the pricing was quite variable and maybe you could just remind us of what you’re generating in carbon credits and the volatility of that pricing over time?

Dave Nunes: Yes. So first of all, we have always sort of taken somewhat of an opportunistic approach on selling carbon credits in New Zealand. And there have been times where we’ve sold none in a year where we believe the pricing would come up. Part of the volatility that we referenced for this year was there were some government statements that earlier in the year that caused question as to the future of that carbon credit scheme, and that caused prices to really drop dramatically in the earlier this year. Subsequent to that, comments were made that had the reverse and brought back stability in the market and brought pricing back to where it was late last year, and it was really that event that resulted in us kind of getting back into the market, particularly in the third quarter.

And depending on exchange rates, we’re sort of seeing carbon pricing there that equates to on a U.S. dollar basis sort of in that $35 to $40 per New Zealand unit, which roughly equates to a metric ton of emissions. And so that’s why we elected to get back into that market. But it’s — I don’t know, Doug, if there’s any more color that you’d add to that?

Doug Long: I think you did a good job at that, Dave. I’d just say that like you mentioned earlier on, there were some comments made, there was an election year in New Zealand. So there were some comments made prior to the election that created some concern within the market, but I think now we’ve seen — there was a recommendation by the Climate Commission on what carbon pricing should look like. And obviously, with that election coming up, people were making different kind of bets on what might happen. I think since we’ve seen the election finish and the comments we’ve heard from the parties afterwards that there’s a lot more settling down in the trajectory for those carbon pricing falls more recommend by Climate Exchange Commission, which actually was higher pricing going forward on kind of the levels there.

Paul Quinn: Okay. Great. And then if we could contrast that with what you’re experiencing or what you’re seeing in the North American market in terms of carbon pricing and when you expect to monetize some of that?

Dave Nunes: Yes. Keep in mind that in the North American market, you’re dealing with voluntary markets. And the pricing is substantially lower than in the New Zealand market, which is a compliance market. And I think that we are very much in a wait-and-see mode in the U.S. I think there’s a lot of the carbon credits that are out in the market in the U.S. right now that have questionable additionality and hence, are priced very low. And I think you’re not going to likely see that market firm up until we see a lot of those units sort of go by the wayside. So we’re continuing to work on carbon credit projects, but we feel like this is a market that’s going to take more time to develop.

Doug Long: Yes. I would just add that with our experience over a decade in New Zealand with carbon, obviously, a little bit different, but still similar, and we saw the pricing has gone from at the very beginning, $4 type of thing. Well, when start-up higher than that $1 to $4 and it’s going back up as Dave mentioned more in the $40 range. And so we’ve learned to be patient and try to target when we think there’s opportune time to enter and as we’re waiting for more as Dave mentioned, for kind of some of these lower-quality credits to either be retired to move out the system and start to see the value for the quality credits. And we do have projects in place we’re looking at, but at this point in time, don’t feel like it’s the right time to enter.

Paul Quinn: All right. That’s all I had. Good luck on the asset sales.

Operator: The next question will come from Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open, sir.

Ketan Mamtora: Thank you. And I’d like to offer my congratulations as well. Dave, we’ve always enjoyed your thoughtful responses and enjoyed listening to you. And Mark, congratulations as well. Maybe to start with on the asset sale program. Are there any regions or wood baskets that you would think that you think are not part of this asset sale program? Or it really kind of just depends on what kind of value you get out of potential sales from any of these baskets or regions?

Dave Nunes: Yes. I think right now, our mindset is pretty open, and we expect both some inbound interest as well as our own internal assessment of things. And I’d go back to the range of features that we have described. And certainly, there’s areas that tick more of those boxes than others, and that will factor very much into our thinking.

Mark McHugh: Yes, I’d just add to that, Ketan. We noted in our release that we expect to concentrate capital in markets with the strongest cash flow attributes and most favorable long-term growth prospects. And certainly, one of the areas that we’re seeing long-term growth potential is really around this land-based solutions business and particularly solar and CCS. We’re seeing potentially very meaningful opportunities there in the long term. But those opportunities are geographically concentrated in some select areas. And so as we kind of think about where the growth is likely to come in the business, particularly in the U.S. South, certainly, there are specific areas that we would look to preserve really to kind of capture that nature-based solutions upside over time.

Ketan Mamtora: Got it. Okay. So is it fair to say that you would also consider New Zealand as well as an option if there were to be the right value? Or is that out of bounds of this program?

Mark McHugh: Again, as Dave said, we’re still going through the process of looking at which assets are going to best suit our objective. So we’re not going to comment beyond that at this time.