Radian Group Inc. (NYSE:RDN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

Mihir Bhatia: Maybe I’ll just start with the pricing question. Maybe just we’ve been — just wanted to check in, what’s the pricing environment like that you’re seeing? Did you see any signs of increased price competition between the MIs this quarter? What have you been doing on the pricing side? Any updates there?

Derek Brummer: Mihir, it’s Derek. So in terms of the pricing environment, it continues to be rational and disciplined. And we saw a fairly normal pricing fluctuations really throughout the quarter. This included what we estimate was a small decrease in market clearing levels in the latter half of the quarter. But important to keep in mind that, that’s really within the bounds of what I’d call a normalized kind of competitive environment. In terms of the current environment, we view it as a strong one to deploy capital. Pricing remained substantially above from where it was in 2022. And we continue to see really good value across the credit spectrum. So as a result, really, the way we look at it, the pricing and competitive landscape remains very favorable to our strategic focus, which we talked a lot at our Investor Day about and that focuses on generating long-term economic value and leveraging our analytics to generate alpha with really a focus on finding the portion of the MI market with what we estimate to be the long-term economic value of the highest order.

So that’s really been what we’ve been focused on. And so we think that today’s environment offers a really good ability to successfully implement that strategy and deploy capital.

Mihir Bhatia : Got it. And on persistency, I think you mentioned that you expect it to stay high. But I guess, the question is, is there room for it to increase any more from where it is? Or is this pretty much a cyclical peak or historic peak or what have you?

Rick Thornberry: Yes, it’s a great question, Mihir. I mean we’re in very unusual times, rapid rise in rates, a lot of mortgage borrowers at really very low rates. Historically, we’ve kind of bought mid — kind of mid-80s was kind of normalized range, kind of the high end of the curve. I would tend to stick there. I think there’s a variety of different factors. I think really the question is kind of also a duration question, right, and kind of how our portfolio extends in duration from an earnings potential point of view. And that kind of comes back to Derek’s comment about how we think about economic value and future earnings of the portfolio. And if you remember from our Investor Day, as we kind of gave an illustration of kind of those future earnings, the longer persistency persists, right, is kind of positive towards the long-term earnings profile of our portfolio.

So I wouldn’t — I would not necessarily give you confidence that it could go higher. But I do think there’s a lot of — Sumita, I think, in her prepared remarks commented about kind of the percent of our portfolio above — below 6%. So there’s a pretty significant movement in mortgage rates required before you see any level of refinance incentive.

Mihir Bhatia : Got it. And then just my last question, maybe on the originations backdrop, right? Obviously, Rick, I think even you mentioned that expecting it to be challenging in the next couple of quarters. And I have 2 questions related to your business from that, right? One is, typically, these are the times you start seeing originators stretch and doing things that from a credit perspective, as they’re trying to drive volume, that might not be the best from a credit perspective. Are you seeing any evidence of that in the MI business? And then relatedly, any update on Radian Mortgage Capital? Any uptick in opportunity or something there from what’s just from the tougher [indiscernible]?