Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (NASDAQ:PNFP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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But the anticipation is that they’ll go back to the two performance variables being earnings per share growth and revenue growth. And so, anyway, I’m just putting that in perspective. I get it, you’re asking about expenses, but it does create a great focus on getting the revenue generated, which drives up the odds of success there. And secondarily, the earnings, if we’re not hitting that revenue growth, there’s plenty of focus on it. We will get in here and start working in a different way on the expenses.

Steven Alexopoulos: Got it. Okay. That’s helpful. If I could change to the margin, to follow-up on your answer to Jared’s question, and all the commentary you gave about the competitive environment for deposits, Harold, how should we think about the trajectory for NIM? How are you thinking about it here? I think you said down 3 basis points to 5 basis points in the first quarter, but do you think it’s slow and steady declines through the year? Or do you think we bottom out in the first half, recover in the second half? How are you thinking about that?

Harold Carpenter: Yes. As far as the rate increases and impact on our margin, we think they will have kind of — that’ll drive some of the reduction in our margins. So, in all the likelihood we’d see — margin is probably going to just kind of rotate around this 3.55% to, call it, 3.60% number, we believe, all year long. If funding pressures — and we’re not able to hit our deposit targets, then obviously, that’s going to impact that assertion. But as it sits right now, we believe we’re just going to be — kind of be in that 3.55% to 3.60% range.

Steven Alexopoulos: Okay. That’s helpful. And then, finally, on BHG, if we look at the prior expectations for 2023 versus what you’re coming out with now, right, through reduced outlook for the contribution, it doesn’t sound like that’s related to you anticipating higher provisions at BHG. Is this all related to them just holding more production in portfolio? Is that really what’s driving this, or is there something else?

Harold Carpenter: So, I think there will be year-over-year more credit costs related to provisioning of some, call it, 10% to 20%. But they intend to probably back off some of their balance sheeting and send more money through the auction platform this year. They think they’re going to have to do that with the elimination of these lower tiers, these higher credits — I mean, lower credit score accounts in order to hit their revenue numbers for this year. So, I think they’ll send more to the auction platform, and I think they’ll also be still adding more money to the reserves, but not at the same pace that they did in the fourth quarter.

Steven Alexopoulos: Got it. Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks for the color.

Operator: Thank you. And the next question is coming from Michael Rose from Raymond James. Michael, your line is live.

Michael Rose: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Harold, I think last quarter you talked about a cumulative deposit beta somewhere in the 60% range and you kind of estimated 40% by the end of this year, which you kind of had. Any changes to that just given the competitive pressure for that longer-term cumulative beta? And if the Fed does stay higher for longer, does that impact that? Thanks.

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