Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:PECO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jeff Edison: Yes. Haendel, we have — it is an area that we have been in before. We know it fairly well. And I think there is opportunity there. It is not — in my mind, it is not a boilerplate kind of business. It is a property-by-property business at a very small asset size. And you have to have the right organization team set up to actually be able to find the right opportunities at the right prices and with the right overhead, given that you got a much smaller size asset. But we find it sort of intriguing and have looked at it a number of times and have owned a number of centers that were in that category over time. And they’ve done fairly well. And I think, to me, the thing that the message there is the strength of the small store retailer.

And we’re — when you get into that category, that is who you are talking about. And as you know, our experience with the small-store retailers has been very positive and we have — both on a delinquency standpoint, bad debt standpoint across the board, they have been very resilient in multiple cycles. And I think that’s what you are seeing here is, the lack of new construction and the strength of the small-store retailer, it’s a strategy to take advantage of that. And I don’t — it will be really interesting to see how the market reacts to it because it’s not — it is something we’ve been talking about for a long time in terms of the strength of the of the small store retailer. But it hasn’t been universally accepted. I mean, there is still a lot of people who are very questioning of that.

And it will be interesting to see how the market transforms and looks at that concept.

Haendel St. Juste: I appreciate the color and the perspective. But just for the final dot at the end there, it doesn’t sound like that’s something that’s imminent for you. You see enough opportunity with the core asset that you are looking at, where this perhaps won’t be a focus for you anytime soon. Thanks.

Jeff Edison: Yes. Haendel, I mean, we never say never, and we continue to look at opportunities like this. But again, there is a difference between a strategy and looking for specific opportunities. For us, it’s much more a specific opportunities thing. Are there specific opportunities near centers that we’ve got where we have a really good vision into the market? Are there other opportunities there? And you can see from some of the things that we’ve acquired outlots and the rest. There are — we believe in that. And we believe that when you have the local knowledge that we do at our specific properties, you do have a competitive advantage in terms of acquiring in those markets.

Operator: We will go to our next question from Juan Sanabria at BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria: Hi. Good morning. Just wanted to follow up on the fourth quarter acquisitions. I believe last year, the weighted-average cap rate for acquisitions was about 6.1% So, would you say, at a 100 to 150 basis points as per your prior comment like a low- to mid-7s cap rate is indicative of where the market is today, or is that more for acquisitions that would close in the fourth quarter and maybe backward looking, because the market, like you said, is fluid and maybe cap rates would inch up further from that kind low to mid-7s range?

Jeff Edison: So, Juan, are you really trying to get us to give you a cap rate? I think, you’re sneaking up on us on that one. Yes. The answer is, we — I think the 100 to 125 basis points, 150 basis points movement was probably more from prior to that, sort of when the cap rates were more in that 5.5% range. So, take that for what it was. But I — we’d already seen movement when we were in that low-6s range from where we thought the market had sort of peaked out. So, I think that would give you a general feel that it’s not — it’s more in the mid-6s range than it is a low-7s range from our perspective of where the market probably falls out today. But those are projects that have significant upside to them. So, when things get stabilized, it does — that’s why we try not to talk about cap rates but really unlevered IRRs, because there are 7 cap rate deals today that generate an unlevered IRR of a 7.5% or an 8%.

And those are not things that we are looking at. Though they have a nice yield to them, they’re not where we think the market is.

Juan Sanabria: And then just one of your peers, Simon, [ph] commented about seeing some softness on the lower end consumer, and I take your point about not really having any exposure to the bankruptcies to date and the watch list being pretty small. But where would you see — if the lower end consumer gets hit, where would you expect to see maybe some pressure amongst your neighbors? Any categories or anything that you could eliminate would be helpful?

Jeff Edison: Yes. I think you have to start by defining what lower end is. Because if lower end is 50,000 median household incomes and below, we really don’t have exposure to those markets. Those are lower end markets than where we are at. But, when you talk 10% above the median household income number, which is where we are, we’re not seeing any traces of what you’re talking about. And these are high-70s median household income, which is sort of right over where Kroger and Publix are, even a little above them in terms of median household income. So we’re — I would say that we aren’t seeing that. Where we would expect to see that is what we’ve I think talked about before is you start to see — I mean, we’re very fortunate to be in the necessity side of the business.

So when we’re talking about impact, we’re not talking about the kind of impact you have in the discretionary side of the business, but on the — even in our part of the business where what you see in a really difficult recession is you start to see the brand name categories in the grocer, people changing those shopping habits to private label where they can get a better pricing. You can see transitions from the Whole Foods of the world to the Krogers and from the Krogers to the Aldis. You can see that transition as well. I would say from our conversations, we are not seeing that in the market today. But again, that’s just our — the niche that we’re in that we’re not seeing those any significant changes.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Todd Thomas at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Todd Thomas: First question, I guess, circling back to the fourth quarter acquisitions, so look, it sounds like the upside growth opportunity, it’s fairly meaningful. And I was just wondering if you could talk about — just provide a little bit more detail around, either the blended average occupancy rates across that — the acquisition pool and the occupancy lift that you’re expecting and maybe talk about the mark to market opportunity over time. Just curious if you could break out the growth a little bit more that you’re underwriting. And then, are these assets under contract at this time?