Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Emmanuel Babeau: Yes, Bonnie. So I think it’s, of course, something on which we will be able to elaborate once we have been landing the year after the ban put in place on where the country are implementing it at the end of October [indiscernible] in all countries. One of the questions we have is, as with some reduction with some SKUs, does it mean that they are globally going to reduce the level of inventory and can this impact the level of shipment toward the year-end? So I think we’re flying that because, of course, we continue to be with a view that this ban should not ultimately bring major disruption, and we’ve been elaborating on many occasions on why we think that this ban is not going to ultimately change the dynamic in the category.

But it’s so that we have some question mark on the landing for the reason I’ve just been describing on the level of inventory. That’s why we are — I mentioned we need to make sure that we are as clear as possible on the possible, I would say, temporary effect that this could generate. Now when I look at our shipments for the year. So we are clarifying the lending area. When I look at the 2023 performance versus 2022 performance, that will mean even in the low end of the bracket, an acceleration in terms of growth versus the growth that we experienced in 2022 in terms of incremental billion of [indiscernible] being sold. And of course, shipments are, as we know, what we are selling, what is probably more important is the consumer offtake. And here, frankly, we see the momentum continuing with no change.

And I think the Q3 number where we have seasonality. But when we look at Q3, what we expect for Q4, we are very much with the same strong 15% to 16% IMS growth. And we are in line with what we have experienced last year. So that shows — and by the way, it’s a percentage on a higher base. So in fact, in volume, that means that the volume growth is higher. So we don’t see any change in the momentum. We see a lot of strength in the growth, and that’s visible in the volume and the market share that we are reporting today for Q3.

Bonnie Herzog: Okay. That’s helpful. And then just in terms of another question, I just wanted to ask on your new IQOS users in the quarter. It did come in a bit light. You highlighted that this is normal quarterly seasonal trend. So maybe could you talk through that a bit further for us? And then maybe what other drivers might be impacting this? And essentially, how much visibility do you have in terms of Q4? You mentioned you expect a substantial acceleration in user growth this quarter. So I just kind of wanted to verify what you’re seeing so far in October gives you that confidence. And is it realistic to assume a typical $1 million average quarterly run rate moving forward? Thanks.

Emmanuel Babeau: Sure, Bonnie. So actually, last year, we were flat in terms of user acquisition. So we’re doing better this year than last year in terms of user evolution. And I think we are in line with what we experienced in 2021, if I remember well, I think we’ve been sharing the numbers. So that’s a typical pattern for Q3 which is due to the mythology on how we calculate the user growth. And I think we have today the — as I said, the element of the momentum that we are seeing on people buying the device and people registering that is pointing to the fact that we see the same momentum, there is no change. And last year, we finished the year with a strong user growth, and we target to do the same this year. So I have to say it’s remarkably stable in the strength, if I can use this expression.

And as I said, we could be at the end of the day, in fact, growing in shipments and in IMS volume more than last year. So the percentage is about the same. Again, the basis being higher, it means that we’re going to increase in terms of volume differential year-on-year.