The next few years will test whether Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) can replace yesterday’s blockbusters, and whether Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) can become more than an HIV company. Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) newer medicines are gaining traction, but that growth has yet to accelerate the wider business. Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) is expanding faster, although its performance remains concentrated in one therapeutic area. For investors, this is ultimately a choice between an unfinished turnaround and a stronger growth story still searching for greater breadth.
Bull Case
Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) strongest result was the performance of its non-COVID portfolio. Revenue excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid grew 5% operationally, while launched and acquired products generated $3.2 billion and increased 18% operationally. Growth also came from several franchises. Padcev revenue rose 23% operationally to $667 million, supported by increased market share in bladder cancer. The Vyndaqel family generated $1.76 billion, up 8% operationally, while Lorbrena grew 37% operationally. These products give Pfizer more than one avenue for rebuilding revenue as COVID-related demand declines.
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) lowered its 2026 COVID-product forecast from approximately $5 billion to $4 billion after low infection levels weighed on Paxlovid utilization. Nevertheless, stronger-than-expected non-COVID sales allowed the company to raise the midpoint of its total revenue guidance by $500 million. Cost reductions provide additional support for the company. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) expects approximately $6.7 billion in savings from its cost-realignment program through 2029. A separate manufacturing-optimization program is expected to generate another $3 billion, bringing anticipated savings across the two programs to approximately $9.7 billion. This leaner cost base could help Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) preserve margins and continue investing in areas such as oncology and obesity.
Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD), however, is currently delivering much stronger underlying growth. Product sales excluding Veklury increased 10% to $7.6 billion, and HIV sales rose 12% to $5.7 billion, with Biktarvy revenue increasing 7% to $3.8 billion and Descovy sales climbing 48% to $967 million. Yeztugo, Gilead’s (NASDAQ:GILD) twice-yearly injectable HIV-prevention medicine, contributed $232 million as its launch gained momentum. The product adds a potentially important growth driver to an already dominant HIV portfolio.
Growth, however, was not confined to HIV alone, as liver-disease sales increased 10% to $877 million, while Livdelzi revenue more than doubled from $78 million to $167 million. Trodelvy sales rose 26% to $457 million, providing further evidence that Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) is building a meaningful oncology franchise. Management subsequently raised its 2026 product-sales outlook to $30.1–$30.4 billion and increased guidance for product sales excluding Veklury to $29.8–$30.1 billion.
Bear Case
Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) companywide momentum remains modest. Revenue rose 3% to $15.03 billion, but operational growth was only 1%, with favorable currency movements contributing to the reported increase. The company also recorded a $248 million GAAP net loss after recognizing $4.3 billion in non-cash intangible-asset impairments. Its approaching patent cliff adds another challenge to its investment case. Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) guidance includes an estimated $1.1 billion revenue headwind from recent and expected generic and biosimilar competition during 2026. With important franchises including Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xtandi facing future pressure, newer medicines must eventually replace considerably more revenue than they currently generate.
Gilead’s (NASDAQ:GILD) principal risk is concentration. HIV accounted for approximately three-quarters of quarterly product sales, leaving the company heavily exposed to one therapeutic area despite progress in liver disease and oncology. Its diversification strategy has also been expensive. Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) recorded $11.2 billion in acquired in-process research and development expenses, principally associated with Arcellx, Tubulis, and Ouro Medicines. These transactions contributed to GAAP and non-GAAP losses per share of $8.45 and $6.75, respectively. Their long-term returns depend on clinical and commercial success that has not yet been established.
Existing oncology diversification remains uneven as well. Cell-therapy sales declined 14% to $417 million amid competitive pressure, with Yescarta falling 12% and Tecartus declining 24%.
Conclusion
Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) currently has the stronger growth story. Its base business is expanding at a double-digit rate, Yeztugo is adding momentum to HIV prevention, and Trodelvy and Livdelzi are creating growth outside its core franchise.
Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) turnaround, on the other hand, is credible but less mature. Its newer products and cost reductions are improving the outlook, yet 1% operational growth and significant future patent exposure leave more work ahead. Gilead offers clearer growth today, while Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) remains the more execution-dependent recovery opportunity.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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