Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (PBR), Braskem SA (ADR) (BAK) – Brazilian Oil: Roadmap Into 2014

Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR) is about to go through a production turn-around that could make production grow up to 8% per year until 2016. Financially, the company’s first quarter should have been the worst quarter of the year. Price increases, higher ethanol mix in the gasoline and ever-increasing downstream performance should help the company’s results from the second quarter onwards. Besides, partnerships for the new refineries in Northeast Brazil are also positives that shall ameliorate Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR)’s returns profile. All these developments make me think that, trading at 52% book value, Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR)’s shares are fairly valued.

That said, there also are meaningful threats for the company’s future profits. The one threat that worries me the most is the Real’s continued depreciation against the US dollar. Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR) imports a considerable amount of fuels and the government, for political reasons, might not allow the company to increase prices further. Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR) trades at 6.5 times P/E and I would start looking at the stock in order to build a position at a level of $13 per ADR.

Braskem SA (ADR) (NYSE:BAK), trading at 5.1 times EV/EBITDA and 8.5 times P/E, looks cheap. The reason? The company has 100% of its revenues, 80% of its costs and 70% of its debt denominated in US dollars. This means that the Real’s depreciation ameliorates the company’s balance sheet (through debt) and income statements (through costs). Other stocks with similar currency leverage such as Fibria or Suzano (both pulp and paper companies) are up 19% and 13% in the past month, respectively. Meanwhile, Braskem SA (ADR) (NYSE:BAK) is up by just 6.8% in the last four weeks and 12.8% year-to-date.

Braskem SA (ADR) (NYSE:BAK)’s high currency leverage, high international spreads and raw material tax incentives make it a good buy at the current price level. That said, results from all the aforementioned factors will only appear in the third quarter.