Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE:PK) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE:PK) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript February 28, 2024

Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.  isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Park Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Ian Weissman, Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy. Thank you. You may begin.

Ian Weissman: Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to the Park Hotels & Resorts fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of the comments made today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. Actual future performance, outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Please refer to the documents filed by Park with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

In addition, on today’s call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information, such as FFO and adjusted EBITDA. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in yesterday’s earnings release as well as in our 8-K filed with the SEC and the supplemental financial information available on our website at pkhotelsandresorts.com. Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all operating results will be presented on a comparable hotel basis with a comparable view excluding the two Hilton San Francisco hotel. This morning, Tom Baltimore, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; will provide a review of Park’s fourth quarter performance and the outlook for 2024. Sean Dell’Orto, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide additional color on fourth quarter results, an update on our balance sheet and liquidity and further details on guidance.

Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Tom.

Thomas Baltimore: Thank you and welcome, everyone. 2023 was a year of outstanding accomplishments for Park as we executed on our strategic objectives, exceeded our operational goals, and meaningfully strengthened our balance sheet while delivering sector-leading total returns for shareholders. Our strong operational performance was broad-based as we witnessed ongoing strength in Hawaii as well as an acceleration in group demand across several of our core markets, including New York, Boston, Denver and Chicago, which helped to drive RevPAR growth of nearly 16% versus 2022 in our urban hotel portfolio. On the capital allocation front, we remain laser focused on targeting the highest returns on our invested capital, having strategically invested nearly $300 million across our iconic portfolio at expected returns well above acquisition yields.

We also took advantage of the spread between public and private market valuations, buying back nearly 15 million shares for $180 million in 2023 at a significant discount to net asset value. In addition, we returned over $450 million of capital to shareholders in the form of dividends with dividends from operations totaling $1.38 per share or an attractive 8.5% yield based on our most recent share price. I’m also incredibly excited about our relative position in 2024. The investments we made in our portfolio over the last two years, along with the repositioning achieved by the effective exit from the two San Francisco hotels combined with the current backdrop of a healthier than expected U.S. economy, strong convention and group activity in our key markets, and the ongoing resilience of leisure travel create a favorable setup for Park.

Prudent capital allocation remains a top priority as we anticipate continuing our initiative to sell more non-core hotels with net proceeds used to reduce debt and reinvest in our core portfolio with an expected disposition target of $100 million to $250 million this year. Furthermore, we will continue to strengthen our balance sheet by extending maturities, all while maintaining sufficient liquidity to opportunistically acquire assets to capital market conditions improve. Turning to operations. As we previously reported, I am incredibly pleased with our results for both the quarter and full-year 2023 exceeded expectations. RevPAR growth increased 4.1% for the fourth quarter and 8.7% for the full year or 50 basis points higher than the midpoint of our full year guidance.

Excluding the impact from renovation, primarily at Bonnet Creek and Casa Marina, RevPAR increased an impressive 6% and nearly 11%, respectively. Total RevPAR growth of nearly 5% in the fourth quarter was supported by an 8% increase in food and beverage spend driven by solid banquet and catering in our urban and resort markets, translating into an incremental $3.5 million increase in EBITDA in the fourth quarter. With respect to group, we saw a continued trend of accelerating performance throughout the quarter, with comparable group revenues for the fourth quarter are up nearly 9% year-over-year, or a sequential 12% improvement over the third quarter, while Q4 results represented the first quarter since the start of the pandemic for group revenue the past 2019’s quarterly results.

Looking ahead to 2024, we expect group to remain very healthy. Group revenue pace up 13% year-over-year and total group revenues forecasted to exceed 2019 levels this year, driven by a material pickup in group demand at our Bonnet Creek complex in Orlando, where our meeting space expansion project was completed recently, coupled with strong citywide calendars across several of our core markets including Chicago, Honolulu, New Orleans, San Diego and Miami, all of which are expected to produce double-digit increase in convention room nights 2024. Focusing on a few key markets. New York continued to benefit from impressive recovery of both group and leisure demand, which when combined with a nearly 9% decrease in hotel supply since 2019, translated into a material increase in compression room nights during the quarter.

Specifically, our Hilton New York Midtown recorded 45 sellout nights in the quarter, almost double the same period last year and most notably, the highest quarterly revenue in the property’s history, rounding out a great year for the asset, which grew RevPAR by over 30% versus 2022. Boston also delivered a very strong quarter with our Hyatt Regency Hotel benefiting from better-than-expected group demand, helping to lift rate with ADR up 10% year-over-year or 12.5% above 2019. Turning to our resort portfolio. Excluding disruption primarily from the Casa Marina and Waldorf Bonnet Creek renovation, RevPAR for the fourth quarter exceeded 2022 by over 6%, led once again by the sustained demand in Hawaii, specifically at the Hilton Hawaiian Village, RevPAR increased 5%, driven by increased group room nights and ADR improvements from continued domestic leisure strength.

Total air available seats into Oahu grew by 11% over 2022 during the fourth quarter with domestic improving by 5% and international available seats increasing by nearly 30%, although still pacing 28% below 2019 level. We saw particular strength at our Hilton Waikoloa Village, which achieved a 22% increase in RevPAR during the quarter, driven by exceptionally strong group demand. Group revenues were up more than 145% over 2022, including increased demand from several groups relocating their programs from Maui to Big Island during the fourth quarter. Even without the benefit of the still recovering international demand, both hotels reported record profits 2023. With Hilton Hawaiian Village, adjusted EBITDA up 15% over 2019 to $188 million, while Hilton Waikoloa Village seated 2019 by 12% to $56 million despite having 600 fewer rooms.

Looking ahead to 2024, Park remains well positioned to generate solid year-over-year RevPAR gains driven by tailwinds from our ROI investments, the ongoing strength of our resort markets and an acceleration of group, business transient demand in markets which stand to benefit strong convention calendar. At our Bonnet Creek Orlando complex, feedback from meeting planners has been incredibly positive. 2024 group revenue forecast to be a record year for the complex with revenue on the books facing over 30% ahead of 2023 and hotel adjusted EBITDA forecasted to exceed 2023 by over 20%, while group revenue pace versus 2019 is currently ahead by 30%. At Casa Marina and Key West, momentum is building since the hotel fully reopened its rooms at mid-December, revenue on the books 2024, up 65%.

The property forecasted to generate full year RevPAR growth in excess of 70%. Collectively, we expect renovation tailwinds from both the Casa and Bonnet Creek to add approximately 150 basis points lift to the full year 2024 RevPAR to our overall portfolio. In Hawaii, we anticipate Hilton Hawaiian Village to have another strong year, driven by healthy domestic travel, while inbound tourism from Japan, is expected to improve throughout the year. The latest forecast from the Hawaii Tourism Board suggest a material increase in airlift direct to Honolulu from Japan, visitor arrival is expected to increase 50% this year and exceed 2019 levels by 2026. Between the two properties, we are forecasting our Hawaii hotels to deliver low single-digit RevPAR growth in 2024, partially impacted by phased room renovations at both resorts that Sean will discuss shortly.

We are very bullish on the future outlook for both markets in Hawaii. Japanese travel should continue to build over the next 12 to 18 months. We anticipate increased domestic airlift to both islands is up over 15% in 2019, should help to support ongoing strong domestic demand. Additional growth drivers in 2024 includes strong performance across our urban portfolio with Boston, New York, Denver and Chicago expected to deliver RevPAR growth in excess of 5% on average as both group and business transient demand trends continue to improve. In summary, 2023, we accomplished some key objectives that have set us up to deliver solid growth, the tailwinds from recent ROI investments and a meaningfully improved balance sheet. Additionally, continued strength in Hawaii, well-positioned urban portfolio, supported by strong convention calendars and encouraging momentum in our group business give us optimism in our outlook.

With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Sean, who will provide further details on our performance as well as providing additional details on the first quarter expectations.

Sean Dell’Orto: Thanks, Tom. Overall, we were very pleased with our fourth quarter performance. Q4 RevPAR was $178, with occupancy up 150 basis points to 71% and with ADR increasing nearly 2% to $251 or 15% above 2019. Q4 comparable hotel revenue was $619 million, while comparable hotel adjusted EBITDA was $171 million, resulting in comparable hotel adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.5%. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $163 million and adjusted FFO per share was $0.52. Turning to the balance sheet. Our current liquidity is over $1.3 billion, including approximately $350 million of cash, while net debt currently stands at $3.4 billion, or down over $500 million versus where we stood over a year ago. With net debt to adjusted EBITDA lower by 1.5 turns to under 5.2x following our effective exit from the two Hilton San Francisco hotels.

Overall, our balance sheet is in great shape with just over $700 million of debt maturing through 2025 or less than 20%, including our $650 million 7.5% corporate bonds that come due in June 2025. With respect to balance sheet priorities, we continue to evaluate options to push out in pending maturities while using proceeds from potential asset sales to delever and provide further financial flexibility. Furthermore, I’m delighted to announce that S&P Global recently upgraded Park Hotel’s corporate credit rating by two notches, elevating it from a single B rating to BB minus. This marks a significant advancement for the company and reflects the agency’s acknowledgment of our dedicated efforts over the past four years to strengthen our balance sheet and credit metrics.

Turning to capital expenditures. We substantially completed several strategic projects in 2023, including the $220 million full-scale renovation and meeting space expansion at our 1,500-room Cigna and Waldorf Astoria Bonnet Creek Resort Complex in Orlando as well as the $80 million renovation of our Casa Marina resort in Key West, the $85 million complete rooms renovation of the 1,021 room Capa tower at Hilton Hawaiian Village, the $11 million complete rooms renovation of the 455 room Riverside tower at our Hilton New Orleans hotel and the $5 million renovation of a 30,000 square foot grand ballroom at the New York Hilton. In total, we spent nearly $300 million of capital in 2023, one-third of which were targeted ROI projects. In 2024, our total CapEx spend will be approximately $230 million to $250 million, of which nearly 60% will be focused on guest-facing areas, including renovations for nearly 850 rooms.

Key projects this year, including multiphase rooms renovation at Hilton New Orland Riverside, where we will renovate all 1,167 keys in the main tower over the next few years with 250 keys targeted for completion in 2024. In addition, we will also launch phased room renovations at both of our Hawaii hotels, including approximately $45 million to be spent at Hilton Hawaiian Village, where we will renovate nearly half of the 796 rooms in the Rainbow Tower this year while adding 26 key with the balance expected to be completed in 2025. We also plan to renovate nearly half of the room product in the 400-room Palace Tower at Hilton Waikoloa Village for a total investment of $31 million, also adding 11 keys with the balance of the rooms expected to be completed by early 2026.

Renovation displacement in Hawaii this year is expected to be approximately $8 million, placing a nearly 180 basis points drag on Hawaii RevPAR performance or a 40 basis point drag on total portfolio results, while negatively impacting total portfolio margin by 20 basis points for the year. Turning to guidance, we are establishing a full-year 2024 RevPAR guidance of $185 to $188 or a year-over-year growth of 3.5% to 5.5%, while hotel EBITDA margin is expected to be between 26.8% and 27.8%. With respect to earnings, we are forecasting adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $645 million to $685 million and adjusted FFO per share guidance is forecast to be between $2.02 to $2.22. With respect to full year hotel adjusted EBITDA margin, which is forecast to be down 50 basis points at the midpoint, prior year comparisons will be impacted by last year’s favorable property tax appeals and other non-repeating items, which will negatively impact margin by approximately 40 basis points.

The first quarter had an exceptional start with RevPAR growth up 13.4% in January and positive trends continued in February with preliminary RevPAR forecast to be up over 8% or a pickup of over 250 basis points of year-over-year growth relative to our forecast at the beginning of the month. We have witnessed solid performance across much of the portfolio with outsized gains driven by our urban core, including New York, Chicago, New Orleans and Denver. While we expect RevPAR in Hawaii to increase by 10% through the first two months of this year. Additionally, renovation tailwinds at both Casa Marina and Signia Bonnet Creek are translating into solid RevPAR gains at these properties with results in January and estimates for February projected up 20% and 19%, respectively.

Looking ahead to March, we have tougher year-over-year comparisons, especially on the group side, which witnessed exceptionally strong performance last year. While the Easter calendar shift is an additional headwind to March performance. Consequently, we currently anticipate low single-digit RevPAR growth for March to balance out the quarter, yielding expectations for Q1 RevPAR growth in the range of 6.3% to 7.3%. Turning to the Q1 dividend. Given our positive outlook for the year, we recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, which is a 67% increase over the $0.15 quarterly dividend paid last year and translates to an annualized dividend yield of 6.2% based on recent trading levels. As we stated last quarter, we expect to resume our targeted payout ratio in the range of 65% to 70% adjusted FFO per share for the full year, which based on our current guidance would translate into an incremental top-off dividend at the end of the year.

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the line for Q&A. To address each of your questions, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Operator, may we have the first question, please?

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Q&A Session

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Floris Van Dijkum with Compass Point.

Floris Van Dijkum : Pretty, pretty impressive. As I look at this, I still see a $47 million hotel EBITDA gap in your results. Just curious as to when you think that the portfolio is going to exceed 2019 levels. And the $47 million, obviously, your hotel EBITDA relative to 2019 levels. And maybe if you could touch on specifically Hawaii Village because that asset is just — it keeps — it’s a gift, I guess, that keeps giving because it’s within touching distance of getting to $200 million of EBITDA. And despite the disruption that you expect in ’24, I mean, 6% EBITDA growth essentially puts you over the $200 million mark. Is it possible within the next calendar year to be able to achieve something like that?

Thomas Baltimore: So it’s great. It’s always good to talk with you. As you know, there was a lot to unpack there. On the Hawaii piece, I think as Sean put, as he noted in his prepared remarks, Hawaii has been a phenomenal and really strong performer. And despite the fact that the Japanese traveler isn’t back, it’s — depending on I think last year, about 600,000 visitors versus — so if you look over the last 30 years, I think about $1.5 million. So you’re still 50%, 60% plus or minus below normalized levels. We do think, as we noted, that we’ll get back to 1.5 million visitors probably in that 2026 time frame. So it continues to provide, I think, incredible tailwinds for us. There’s nothing like Hilton Hawaiian Village. When you think about 22 acres, five towers, you’ve had generations that continue to go there.

It’s not ultra luxury. And so it appeals to the masses. It’s got, obviously, the long history with Hawaii 5.0. So it is special. To answer your question as to whether or not we eclipse 6% or $200 million. I don’t know whether it’s this year or next year, but I certainly think it’s in our future. As we said in our prepared remarks, we’re probably looking at low single-digits this year, given the fact that we’re going to try to complete half of the renovation of Rainbow Tower this year. If you look at Tapa and huge credit to Carl Mayfield and his team the design and construction side. I mean we were picking up $75 an additional ADR from that renovation. We expect we’ll do something comparable, if not more, what we’re planning, obviously at Rainbow Tower.

So we are very, very bullish as we look out in Hawaii, Hilton Hawaiian Village. But let’s also not forget Hilton Waikoloa, which had a phenomenal year, up 146% in group revenue last year despite the fact that, that property, again, has half the inventory that it had pre-spin. We’re generating, I think, $85,000 in EBITDA per guestroom. So it just continues to be a phenomenal performer. Our asset management team working in conjunction with our operating partners out there. The strong leadership that we’ve got at Hilton Hawaiian Village, Debbie Bishop and her team just do a phenomenal job. So very, very bullish on Hawai as we look out. And as you know, we’re also working on entitling a sixth tower. So we think there’s even more upside in Hawaii as we look out.

It would be impossible, and I emphasize impossible to replicate what we have at Hilton Hawaiian Village. And that also does not include the 1,000 units of timeshare that we don’t own. But at any point, you’re looking at guests at 10,000 to 11,000 or more on site at the village. So it is truly iconic and special, and I’m not sure there’s another REIT asset across any of the sectors that generates the kind of EBITDA that we do at Hilton Hawaiian Village. So very proud and very bullish and grateful for the hard work there. Now regarding your question across the portfolio and that the gap that exists. It’s pretty interesting when you think about the fact that take January as an example, fourth quarter, we said we were up group 16%. But if you look at just January, urban was up 20%, resort up 10%.

If you think about our group pace, our group pace in January, up 29%, February, up 26% and it’s broad-based, as we noted, Chicago was up 38%. Denver, up 34%. San Jose in business out there close to Apple and others up 35%. New Orleans up 52%. New York up 21% and despite the fact that we finished last year, up 31% for the year. So you’re really seeing the urban group come back and you’re also seeing, obviously, the tailwind on the upper of scale. And as we look at our portfolio, obviously, as Sean noted, March will soften, but very, very bullish as we look out for ’24 and beyond.

Operator: Our next question is from Dany Asad with Bank of America.

Dany Asad: Tom, I just wanted to unpack a little bit your — like the RevPAR guide, especially in your prepared remarks, you guys mentioned that the renovations will be adding 150 basis points to RevPAR. So it just feels like the two to four that you’re kind of implying, compared it to the 6% to 7% that we’re going to do in the first quarter. Is there a touch of conservatism into the rest of the year? Or kind of what’s driving that — like how do we think about that decel relative to the first quarter?

Thomas Baltimore: A couple of points of clarification, Dany. We’re 3.5% to 5.5% in guidance RevPAR. So obviously, a midpoint of about 4.5 and they were looking at about 150 basis points of tailwind coming out of Casa and then obviously coming out of Bonnet Creek. Admittedly, obviously, January and February, very, very strong based on the trends that we’re seeing. There will be a decel in March for all the reasons that we pointed out. Group is going to be down. And of course, you’ve got the Easter shift will clearly impact. So yes, there’s — January and February don’t make a year. So there’s certainly conservatism built into that. But look, we are very pleased. I think you are seeing, as I said previously, you’re seeing now — we had, obviously, the pent-up demand from leisure coming out of the pandemic.