Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Scott Sutton: Well, I would say our volumes in the Epoxy business are already quite low. I’ll say, the good — again, the good news there is that sequentially in third quarter relative to second quarter, our volumes actually increased in that business. But look, our volumes are so low in Epoxy. That’s not where the major adjustment is. The new adjustments are in merchant chlorine, EDC and caustic.

Josh Spector: Got it. Thanks.

Scott Sutton: Sure.

Operator: The next question comes from Hassan Ahmed from Alembic Global. Please go ahead.

Hassan Ahmed: Good morning, Scott, and Todd. Scott, I wanted to dig a bit deeper into your comfort level around the implications of the value accelerator initiative. I mean, you guys have been very specific in saying that you feel there’s going to be a positive inflection in the second quarter of 2024. I mean, I’m just trying to understand. I mean, clearly, it’s an uncertain world. Industrial production seems to be all over the place. So obviously, that has an impact on caustic demand. And obviously, there’s housing weakness here, out in China and the like. I mean, of course, you guys are controlling supply. But I’m just trying to understand what gives you that level of comfort that you will indeed, with this uncertain sort of macro environment, see that Q2 positive inflection.

Scott Sutton: Yes. Well, you know, Hassan, things aren’t necessarily getting worse, right? Asia has been slow for a while and has stayed there. Europe has been slow for a while and has stayed there, right? I mean new homes in the US, yes, there is some slowdown, but that still continues. Granted, we all know that new mortgage applications and sales of existing homes are really low, maybe the lowest in many years. But the reason that we have a lot of confidence in this is, number one, we’ve been running this model for three years. And we’ve been through other mini cycles running that model over the course of those three years, and we’ve always been able to be successful at turning the value equation around when we need to turn it around.

Number two, we have a really seasoned and broad Olin team who’s completely united on this. And I’d just ask you to remember, we are the absolute leader in these businesses, right? So when you pair those two things together, there’s a lot of momentum to get this done. And then I’ll refer back to maybe it was the first question as well. There’s already some signs that this has a good chance to succeed, right? When request for EDC and merchant chlorine come in that maybe can’t be fulfilled via another path, at least that’s an indicator. But look, it’s really early, right? We just implemented this or started this at the very first of the fourth quarter, right? So we still have a lot of the quarter to go, clearly. And if necessary, we have time in the first quarter as well.

So I don’t want to mislead you. We’ve got a long way to go, but there’s a lot of positive momentum to get this done.

Hassan Ahmed: Understood. Understood. And as a follow-up, again, not to sort of keep harping on this, but in your prepared remarks, you guys talked about how 2024 from an earnings perspective will be better than 2023. Now our exit run rate coming out of Q4 based off of your guidance is $200 million in quarterly EBITDA. You annualize that, and that’s $800 million. And you earlier obviously talked about how in terms of the facilities that you guys are shutting down, it’s TBD, where that you’ll restart them imminently or not, right? So I’m just trying to understand in terms of that guidance that you gave of 2024 earnings being better than 2023, keeping in mind the exit run rate in Q4. I mean, can you just help me sort of understand the quantification behind that?