CNBC reported that NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) CFO Colette Kress told investors on August 26 that fiscal 2028 revenue growth will reach 70%, far above the 44% average analyst estimate tracked by LSEG, marking the company’s first-ever year-ahead revenue forecast.
Applied to the roughly $396 billion consensus estimate for fiscal 2027, that guidance implies fiscal 2028 revenue near $673 billion to $700 billion. It would put Nvidia ahead of Apple and Alphabet and behind only Amazon among U.S. tech companies by revenue. The forecast followed fiscal second-quarter results that beat expectations across the board: revenue more than doubled to $96.22 billion, up 106% year over year, with data center revenue of $89 billion, up 117%, now making up 92% of total sales.
CEO Jensen Huang told investors AI has reached the point where it is doing productive, profitable work and that computing capacity itself is now translating directly into revenue. Shares jumped roughly 8.7% on the news, lifting the broader semiconductor sector. Management said the 70% figure shows supply constraints, primarily memory component shortages, rather than a ceiling on actual demand, and the outlook excludes China data center revenue.
Bull Case
The current quarter already delivered, not just promised. Revenue of $96.22 billion beat estimates by roughly $4 billion, and data center revenue’s 117% year-over-year jump shows the AI buildout is generating historic growth today, not just in a projection.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s customer base is broadening, which could reduce concentration risk. Huang said demand is now coming from hyperscale cloud providers alongside sovereign AI programs, neoclouds, AI startups, and enterprises. It means future growth depends less on any single large customer’s spending decisions.
Management says real demand exceeds even this unprecedented guidance. Huang told analysts the unconstrained growth rate would be “a lot higher” than 70%, with memory supply the actual limiting factor, implying the ceiling on Nvidia’s growth could rise further once supply catches up.
The market’s reaction also points to overall confidence in the AI infrastructure cycle. Broadcom, SK Hynix and Intel all gained alongside Nvidia after the forecast. It shows investors see strong demand across the semiconductor supply chain rather than in Nvidia alone.
Bear Case
Wall Street itself pushed back on the forecast’s reliability. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon noted the 70% figure represents roughly a $200 billion uptick versus Nvidia’s prior outlook, and because this is literally the company’s first year-ahead guide ever, there is no track record yet to judge how dependable Nvidia’s long-range forecasting actually is.
The growth is explicitly supply-constrained, which cuts both ways. Severe memory shortages are limiting output and pressuring margins into the fourth quarter, and server DRAM prices, already up 64% in the second half of last year, are projected to jump another 260% in 2026, a real cost risk even as headline revenue climbs.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is committing enormous capital to secure the supplies needed to meet surging AI demand. Its supply commitments more than doubled to $279 billion in a single quarter, up from $119 billion, with most of the increase tied to memory procurement. Nvidia also spent $145 billion during the quarter to secure critical components. It creates significant financial exposure if AI customers slow their spending or suppliers fail to meet expectations.
Not all of the profit growth is coming from chips. Nvidia booked a $7.8 billion gain on equity investments this quarter, following a $15.9 billion gain the quarter before linked to stakes in companies including Intel and SpaceX. It means a meaningful share of net income growth shows investment gains rather than core operating results.
The forecast carries geopolitical risk baked in since the 70% guidance excludes China data center revenue entirely. It is a market where Nvidia’s access remains constrained, with even approved chip shipments reportedly still minimal. It leaves the actual outcome exposed to how U.S. and China chip policy evolves from here.
Hedge Fund Data
Insider Monkey’s database shows NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was held by 285 hedge funds in the second quarter of 2026, up from 275 in the first quarter, with total holdings value climbing to $94.67 billion from $83.89 billion. AMD, the rival most often cited alongside Nvidia, saw faster percentage growth, held by 164 funds, up from 134, with holdings value nearly tripling to $23.58 billion from $8.71 billion.
Conclusion
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s solid revenue growth and stronger-than-expected outlook show that demand for AI infrastructure remains exceptionally strong. Growing customer demand and supply constraints give the company room to grow even faster. However, Nvidia’s massive supply commitments, rising memory costs, investment gains, and its exposure to China create risks if AI spending slows or supply conditions deteriorate.
Overall, Nvidia remains ready to win big from the booming AI market, but investors want the company to turn this huge demand into steady growth without risking supply chain troubles or political conflicts.
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