NorthWestern Corporation (NASDAQ:NWE) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So, making sure we’re clarifying here that effective November 1, we go to the final rates incorporating the $81.5 million, and there is no adjustments to the interim rates that we collected so far on a base rate basis. We are certainly pleased with the outcome, and again, how the commission went about working through the order and working through what we believe was a very constructive settlement amongst the intervening parties. We do need to see a final order, however, but once we see that and based off the draft order we have reviewed and the tenure of the work session, at this point, we don’t expect that we would appeal the outcome of that docket. But we also think then, very importantly, that it provides a solid foundation for how we move forward, and I’ll address that in a couple of minutes here on how we’re thinking about our growth and outlook, but that is certainly what allowed us to give guidance here this quarter with our update to you and to move forward.

And with that, I will also talk about our South Dakota rate review, which we filed earlier this year in June. Slide 14, you’ve seen the details of this and the update here is that we are working with commission staff in South Dakota. Commission staff is advocacy staff. We’ve been answering data requests. Great questions from them on our operations and testing as appropriately as to the cost that we’ve included. And I would tell you that we expect we’re winding down that — the data request process and should be moving into hopefully settlement discussions here as we’re into Q4. I would also remind you that in South Dakota there is a six-month waiting period before interim rates would be available to us, which would put us sometime in mid-December, and we’re hoping to work with the commission prior to that to move this case along.

And that case is critical to our outlook as we think about 2024 and moving forward. So with that, I will turn you to Slide 15, and thinking about our earnings outlook here, we are initiating guidance for 2023, as Brian mentioned, with a range of $3 to $3.10, and for 2024, a range of $3.42 to $3.62. Importantly, at the same time, we’re also revising our long-term growth outlook, increasing our earnings growth range on a long-term basis to 4% to 6%. And I would frame that growth in two pieces: one is, we’re deploying capital, growing rate base that supports our customers and does the right thing to keep them in the service that they would expect and delivering capital deployment as we should; while we’re also focused on improving our earned returns in our jurisdictions and focusing on delivering to shareholders.

So, both of those pieces are how we will derive growth moving forward. I would also tell you how we’re thinking about the capital plan here and we do expect to provide more of an update on that, but critically in this environment, our current capital plan is sized to contain no equity in the current five-year plan, absent any opportunities incremental to that plan. So, our financing of the plan will be driven by cash from operations and debt, but again no equity in this plan, in the current five-year plan, as contemplated. And part of what that is, we are firmly committed to maintaining our investment-grade credit ratings and targeting FFO to debt of greater than 14% in 2024. And the thing that I would mention here is, we certainly have plenty of capital to deploy and our discipline around that capital allocation is focused on what we need to do on the system, balanced by our balance sheet and maintaining strong financial health and also delivering earnings at the same time.