NMI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:NMIH) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ravi Mallela: So, you know, Bose, nice to hear from you. Certainly, new defaults. You know, what I would say, generally, they’ve had the same attributes as they have in recent quarters. You know, what I would highlight to you is that right there, we’ve been in a rising home price environment. We’ve essentially had three additional months to model into our reserving process. And I would just say, broadly speaking, you know, we tend to anchor to downside scenarios. And that really does, you know, come into our Q3 position. But we’ve moderated the expectation for strain, just given the broad resiliency in the macro environment, and frankly, how house prices have been performing so far. And so you see that change sort of quarter-over-quarter driven by those aspects.

Bose George: Okay. It definitely makes sense. Thanks. And then actually, you have a statistic, the quarterly runoff. And I was just curious how that ties in with the annual persistency because that number has kind of ticked up, you know, over the last couple of quarters. Is that just a quarterly persistency or just –yes, can you just discuss that?

Adam Pollitzer: Yes, that’s exactly right. So those are 12-month persistency number that we look at. It simply measures the business that was on our books 12 months earlier. What percentage of that remains as of September 30? The quarterly runoff – technically runoff is the inverse of persistency. But what that’s looking at is the rate of runoff of the business that was on our books as of June 30 of this year, how much has run off by the time we get to September 30.

Bose George: Okay. So if I annualize that, does it suggest that the runoff, the persistency is kind of better at a quarterly pace versus what we see on the annual number? Or is that not sort of doable?

Adam Pollitzer: No, it’s going to be the inverse, right? So rate of runoff is the inverse of persistency. That which leaves us isn’t obviously staying on our books, but we’ve talked for a while that our persistency in terms of the trend going forward. Right now, our persistency is well above historical trends. We expect that that will remain the case, but we’re probably getting to upper bounds as to where it will sit and may see some migration, whether it’s a touchup, a touchdown as we roll forward.

Bose George: Okay. Great. Thanks.

Operator: Your next question comes from Max Mosbacher with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Max Mosbacher: Hi, good evening. I’m calling in for Mark Hughes. I’m sorry if I missed it, but were there any share buybacks this quarter?

Ravi Mallela: Yes, there were. In Q3, we bought back $19.2 million of shares, approximately 675,000 shares in that – in Q3.

Max Mosbacher: Thank you. And the question was asked last quarter, figured out, it would be helpful to give an updated view on what concerns NMI the most right now in the current environment with, you know, as you mentioned, rising prices and still low default rates?

Adam Pollitzer: Yes. Look, I’d say it’s our job as risk managers to look for concerns around every corner, and we certainly do that. So we stress ourselves around a whole variety of matters. We look internally, right? Are there things around how we’re structured, what we’re focused on, what we’re doing that should give us cost for concern? Thankfully, there aren’t. We’re performing at an exceptionally high level and delivering real core operating strength across our portfolio, across our people, our culture, our expense base, our IT platform. So everything that it takes for us to manage the business internally. And so then we look externally. And we spent some time talking for a while now that we’re in an environment where even though we’ve seen tremendous resiliency in the economy broadly and the housing market in particular, we still think that risk is elevated to a degree, right?