Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ:NKLA) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Stasy Pasterick : Of course. Just quickly to add to that, so as far as the financial aspect of the energy business, how we look at it right now. So there is a near term, or Steve had mentioned that there’s a longer term. In the near term we’re lot focused on profit. And we’re more focused on making sure we have this customer experience, and we’re enabling the early fuel cell truck operations, right. I mean, we are first to market and want to make sure our customers have hydrogen where and when they need it. And it will take time to ramp up with hydrogen revenue. Things I’ve shared in [Indiscernible] with you guys, it’s about 60 to 80k annually, revenue per truck in hydrogen right for truck from operation. So you’ll only start seeing meaningful revenue stream as we start scaling out the truck fleets in the next, say 12 months.

And in the short term hydrogen will likely have negative margins. However, we are doing several things to make sure that we can manage that right and eventually get to the positive margins. One, what Steve had mentioned is we need to find customers that are willing or have to pay a premium right for that integrative energy and truck solution because of regulations. Because of the incentives, we need to build out density. So make sure we’re utilizing the assets that we have. Utilization of assets is number one right factors that will help us drive down the hydrogen cost in the short term. And in the longer term as the more supply comes online and as we are able to finance our ability to come in and participate in producer economics, dispensing economics, that obviously will also help us drive the hydrogen costs down.

Jeff Kauffman: Okay, and then Stasy, if I can just one final follow up. Thank you for the detailed 4Q guidance. The story has evolved from where it was just a quarter ago or two quarters ago. And I remember we were talking about trying to get down to a cash burn of about a $400 million run rate by the end of the year. I want to look through the recall, because that’s going to play itself out in the next few quarters. But if I look at the underlying business, where do you think the cash burn target should be in terms of a run rate at the end of this year? And where are you targeting as a run rate at the end of next year?

Stasy Pasterick : Sure. Great question. So just cash burn the story you’re right, the story has evolved and it will continue evolving, but our financial targets are not changing. So we are focused, we are having some right challenges like the battery we are managing through. As a result of that, our ultimate target for this year in Q4 was $100 million. There will be a temporary increase to that of about 40. So 140 for Q4 is what I’m expecting here. And that’s driven by two things. So BEV refill, obviously we can’t sell through the BEV inventory in Q4 and then the fuel cells delivery guidance effectively is being reduced due to supply chain challenges. So those two factors are working capital, right items that are driving those cash burn up to 140.

They are temporary and reverse in 2024, to work through those challenges and start selling the trucks. That’s for this year. For next year, the goal again, the goal remains the same $100 million a quarter average cash burn for 2024 so that has not changed. We will see a little bit heavier of a cash burn in the first half of the year and we execute and work through the BEV recall. And then we expect to see some of the benefits from that the offsetting benefits from collecting the BEV AR and selling through the remaining BEV inventory as well as the benefits of reaching our BOM [ph] reduction targets later in the year. So 2024 will average out to about $100 million a quarter.

Steve Girsky : And so let me just add something to that, Jeff. The early trucks this quarter and next quarter are going to be the least profitable trucks we produce. They’re going to have the highest BOM, because we’re doing whatever we can to get the trucks out the door. And the prices on these trucks were from commitments that we made some time ago to the early launch customers. As we move through. And Stacey mentioned it before. As we get more volume, the BOM comes down. And we’re primed the goal of the team is to find the customers that value being in the front end of zero emission. And they’re out there, and they’re willing to pay a premium for this.

Jeff Kauffman: Well, congratulations, and thank you for the clarity on this call.

Stasy Pasterick : Thank you.

Operator: Our next question is from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Bill Peterson : Yeah. Hi, good morning. Thanks for providing all the details as usual. I want to pick up on this last, this last question. So I think in the prior call, maybe two calls ago, the team had provided guidance around 1000 total trucks in ’24, 15 to 2025 being kind of a tipping point to breakeven. I guess, how should we think about that one quarter on? Do you still feel confident in that guidance in terms of timing volumes? I guess could the fuel cell make up the majority of that I think you talked about, that’s where the majority of the interest. Basically trying to get a sense of where that breakeven points for BEVs and fuel cell trucks. And I think earlier in this call, you mentioned that the 2.0 as a cheaper pack. So maybe that changes some of the economics as well.

Stasy Pasterick : Sure, Yes, happy to expand on that. So again, the breakeven goal remains the same. We are seeing a little bit of a challenge with some of the things that was mentioned drive for 2024. So one of the things to highlight, like obviously, we reduced the volumes for Q4 of this year. And a lot of those FCV sales things that we already have an audible push into the first half of 2024, some of the early customers do have lower preferential pricing, right, because they’re early adopters. So that’s something that we need to work through. And we’ll have to offset that as Steve said, finding other customers that are willing to pay premium or have to pay premium. Supply chain challenges, right, we’re working through making sure that we can manage our BOM targets, which again, remained the same ultimate BOM target for fuel cell trucks to get to 275 by the end of 2025.

And for the BEV, obviously, was the new back and with the volumes, that’s the thing we can achieve. We can get to below 250. That’s two years from now. Obviously, it’s a step at a time. On the normal run rate, once we get to on targets, assuming we can maintain average selling price of about 400k for fuel cell. If we sell about 300 to 250 trucks a quarter we can break even on a gross margin basis. So that’s really the magic number we’re looking for. Again, as I mentioned, we have to make sure we maintain certain level of ASP and we hit our BOM targets.

Steve Girsky : Yeah, and the only thing — just to reiterate — just to reiterate, Bill. One of the things we’ve learned in this BEV recall is people actually like our trucks and are willing to pay for it. And we’re getting a lot of complaints. So why don’t I get my truck back and we’re finding out that our truck performs better than other trucks. And what we’re trying to do and because of that, we’re learning a lot from lots of things, the early hydrogen trucks as well. People are willing to pay up and we haven’t tested how much people value being on the front end of zero emission, but we know what they’re out there.