Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Tanya Jakusconek: Yes. Okay. With the transaction, yes. And then just my last question is just your view on sort of all of these index rebalancing from now until year-end. Could you give us some overall qualitative information in terms of what quantitative do you have in terms of how you see all of these index rebalancing occurring or what your view is on year-end? Too hard with all this movement in the share prices as we look at the stock, yes.

Thomas Palmer: Thanks, Tanya. Lots of moving parts happening at the moment, certainly with the in that process at the index rebalancing as Newcrest coming off the ASX and our secondary listing coming on the ASX and all of that work happening as well as the volatility in terms of gold price movements. And so there’s lots of moving parts affecting stock performance at the moment. When we look at the — we look at our modeling getting thrown out the other side of the rebalancing between the — our head stock in the New York Stock Exchange and the secondary listing in the ASX, it’s likely to be a month or 2 for that to settle out. So we anticipate — and certainly as we’ve had conversations with shareholders in Australia and describing what we’re going to anticipate happening quite a bit of volatility in liquidity before things start to settle out in terms of New York Stock Exchange and ASX.

We think there’ll be some movement of potentially up to AUD 10 billion that could flow the other. We also anticipate that we’ll have something in the order of AUD 10 billion to AUD 15 billion market cap sitting on the ASX, representing 20% to 30% of our market cap. That where the starting point will lean into and then look that secondary listing, alongside our primary listing. So we get some modeling that sort of shows some scenarios as to where we may land between New York Stock Exchange and ASX. and that — and we fully anticipate that it will be volatile and liquid for a month or a couple of months before it settles down and get a line of sight on the Board.

Tanya Jakusconek: Okay. So what I take on that is some outflows from now until year-end with all of this rebalancing and then settling in and then obviously on a positive side with the Australian listing.

Thomas Palmer: The positive side of the Australian listing with a very savvy mining investment community and some very sticky funds with the big super funds there and lots of interest as we then go to that investment community. And then you’ll also see — I think you’ll see positive trends is from a passive standpoint with our larger market cap as things settle out, I think you’re going to see some of that flow as well. So noisy, but there’s some very good signs as to what this portfolio is going to be able to attract.

Operator: Our next question comes from Josh Wolfson with RBC.

Joshua Wolfson: I understand there’s a lot of moving parts here. But is it possible to provide some goalposts or some indication of what the cost structure looks like even just for the Newmont portfolio going forward? When we take a look at the numbers, fourth quarter, based on guidance, looks to be an annualized rate of 6 million ounces, which is, let’s call it, average for the company, and the implied AISC is closer to about $1,350, which would be quite a bit higher than where the company was discussing costs at least for 2024 under the old structure. So I understand a lot of moving parts, but just anything on inflation or costs for some the Newmont portfolio going forward.

Thomas Palmer: Thanks, Josh. I mean it’s a tricky one this year because of some of the events we’ve managed, which are really impacting ounce production. There has been slowing impact on cost. But when we look through that to our direct cost base, it’s very much in line with what we’re expecting for this year. And then as we look into next year, that direct cost base is looking pretty steady. So it’s sort of staying at the levels that we’ve seen and the sort of stabilizing out of inflation very much as we look into next year is doing a planning work, at least the direct cost base looks very similar this year. So for us, it will be working through the ounce profile for this combined portfolio. But thinking about — we’ll think about our portfolio in a couple of different chunks as we we’re doing our plan.

What will be the Tier 1 operations and the emerging Tier 1 operations that we manage and how we think about those. We’ll be thinking about 3 non-managed joint ventures that will have in our portfolio, Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo And then we’ll be thinking about those Tier 2 assets and how we manage those Tier 2 assets and those that would be more likely to be part of that portfolio optimization. So we think about what’s our cost base for the Tier 1 operations, emerging Tier 1 portfolio that we manage. We will be challenging our non-managed joint ventures around their cost base. And then we’re looking at how we manage our Tier 2 assets going forward. So we’ll be having those debates in and build our business plans. But the high-level answer to your question is our direct cost base is very consistent with what we see this year, and we’ll be working to ensure that we’ve got some of those that we’re throwing out the other side of some of those challenges that we’ve had with bush fires and flooding, a strike and manufacturing with So we’ll certainly be looking at the plan for ’24 being pretty consistent in that profile for those operations a pretty consistent cost base.

Joshua Wolfson: Got it. Okay. And then another question, I’m not sure if you can provide any details or review of this. But following the Newcrest recent operating update, I’m just wondering the performance of these assets, has that affected your views on maybe some of the complexity or the strategy for integrating this portfolio or maybe how you’re going to manage that process?

Thomas Palmer: No, Josh, nothing’s changed from our due diligence. We are crystal clear on how we will manage those operations and how we will integrate them into our operating model, and we’re well advanced in — well advanced in planning in terms of what we’ll do on day 1, week 1, month 1 and the first 100 days. So there’s nothing about anything happened in the sort of the more recent times that changes our long-term view on those assets and how we integrate

Operator: Our final question today comes from Anita Soni with CIBC World Markets.

Anita Soni: So the first one I think was — is related to capital allocation. When you deliver on the $2 billion in portfolio optimization, can you give us an idea whether or not that could be used to support a dividend, if needed? Or do you think you have uses for that capital in terms of reinvesting in your portfolio?

Thomas Palmer: Thanks, Anita. So the portfolio optimization will come from 2 categories. One will be resequencing the projects of the combined portfolio. And so the — you match the 2 portfolios together, that would have been the cash going towards development projects and reinvesting, that will change, and that will then lead to free cash flow that we’re generating be informing the decisions we make around calibrating our dividend framework. So that portfolio optimization will actually lead to generating free cash flow for support of the dividend. Then the portfolio optimization with the proceeds that we received from divestments of assets. First and foremost, we would bring that on to our balance sheet — to strengthen our balance sheet and then make judgments about how we use the cash on our balance sheet.

And certainly, as we did with the Goldcorp, we look back to our Goldcorp experience and we look at where our — to the answer of the earlier question, we look at where our share price is trading, we have a robust view of where we value. And if we thought that there was some opportunity to buy back some shares, so that would be a debate we would have with our Board. But the first and foremost, that cash will come on to our balance sheet and be used to strengthen and bolster the balance sheet of the combined organization.