Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Nebius Group N.V. on Business Ontology’s Substack by Lorenzo Bastianelli. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NBIS. Nebius Group N.V.’s share was trading at $68.32 as of August 29^th. NBIS’s trailing and forward P/E were 75.96 and 68.49 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Nebius (NBIS) has quickly become one of the more intriguing plays in the AI infrastructure space. Initially passed over due to its limited track record as a young public company, deeper analysis and rapid business progress led to a portfolio allocation of 8.7%. The near-term risk appears low, supported by a valuation that already prices in conservative growth assumptions, while the upside could be substantial if management’s projections hold. Even achieving 80% of guided growth over the next 12 months would leave the stock attractively valued, with potential for a multibagger outcome should Nebius sustain momentum.

Nebius’s business model is built on a cycle where superior infrastructure performance drives revenue growth, which in turn supports margin expansion and reinvestment into R&D and verticalization. Early data points show improving gross margins versus rival Coreweave, though it is too early to declare a durable edge. Operating profit and free cash flow remain pressured by heavy GPU-related capex and depreciation, with $510 million spent in Q2 alone, underscoring the capital intensity of scaling AI infrastructure. Nonetheless, revenues surged to $105.1 million, up 625% year-over-year, with run-rate revenue of $430 million, tripling Coreweave’s growth pace.

Management is highly confident, raising ARR guidance to $900 million–$1.1 billion by year-end and outlining plans to expand capacity to 220 MW this year and over 1 GW by 2026. Enterprise wins with Shopify, Prosus, and Cloudflare alongside traction with AI-native startups validate demand. While cash burn and competitive threats from hyperscalers remain risks, Nebius offers investors leveraged exposure to the AI infrastructure cycle with substantial optionality.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in April 2025, which highlighted GPU deployment plans and undervaluation. The stock has appreciated about 224% since, as execution momentum boosted confidence. The thesis still stands given long-term scalability. Lorenzo Bastianelli shares a similar view but emphasizes margins, cash burn, and competition.

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Disclosure: None.