nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Pierre Naude: Greg, maybe I can give some further color just so that people understand what the mortgage impact is on the company as a whole. Today, mortgage is about 16% of total revenue. And then if you look at where I would say is your trend and instability is, that is more than the IMB market and that makes up only 11%. Then you look at the overall picture that we said in your press release that mortgage grew 14% year-over-year, which I think with all these headwinds is a fantastic accomplishment, number one. But also you have to understand that the IMB market is only 11% of the total company. So that impact is not massive on the company as a whole. It’s painful and I want to see it change. But overall, this company has got a financial and a business model that is way beyond mortgage and much stronger to support certainty for us as we make these projections.

Nick Altmann: Awesome. Thanks, guys.

Greg Orenstein: Thanks, Nick.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst: Hi, everyone. It’s [indiscernible] for James. Thanks for taking our question. I just wanted to follow up on Nick’s question on mortgage. It sounds like you’re modeling minimal improvement in the market throughout the year, even though the business grew 14% on a subscription basis, in a market that was down quite meaningfully in ‘23. If we, Greg, you alluded to this, if we look at some of the industry estimates, it looks like on an aggregate basis for ‘24, we’re going to see about a 20% to 30% year-over-year growth relative to ‘23. So, granted a lot of that will be concentrated in the back half, but I’m curious if you could just walk through the rationale for minimal improvement in the mortgage business in fiscal year ‘25 and whether or not that could prove to be conservative. Thanks.

Greg Orenstein: Yeah, thanks, Michael. So only a couple of things. One is, again, we want to be prudent with our model and our guidance and forecasting. We launched last year a plan and six weeks into it, Silicon Valley Bank happened and so we’re sensitive to that. From a year over year growth perspective, again, the churn that we identified in the mortgage side of fiscal ‘24, you see the impact of that really in fiscal ‘25. And so as we think about year-over-year growth, that’s a big drag on that business. That said, again, I think the team’s done a great job navigating through with the 14% year-over-year growth and 10% in the fourth quarter. And as I’ve said before, I think one of the focus areas was aligning with the larger, more successful IMBs, if you look at that part of that business.

And as the dust is settling, again, I think you’re left with a smaller number of larger, better capitalized IMBs. And again, we’ve worked hard to support those. And as volumes come back, and we expect to benefit from that. The other thing from a mortgage perspective, if you go back to Josh’s comments earlier around sales in Q4, the number of financial institutions that were cross-selling and not only just cross-selling but are actually bringing nCino into the financial institution again is another part that should bring some stability to that business as we get through the year. Net of it is, we want to be prudent and I think there’s a debate about when interest rates are going to go down and the impact of that on mortgage rates. And I think we’re probably taking a view of it happening a little bit later in the year than maybe some other people.

Unidentified Analyst: Appreciate that, Greg. Makes sense. For my second question, I’m curious if you could give us a status update just in terms of how the synchronization of the SimpleNexus front end to the rest of the retail lending offering is going. When do you expect to complete that, and how do you think that will ultimately impact adoption of the product more generally, particularly after last quarter’s win on the retail side? Thanks.

Pierre Naude: Yeah, so as you could hear, the number of banks or financial institutions we’re selling that front end to now is increasing, and that velocity or momentum is good. At our nSight user conference, which is in May, we will demonstrate the end-to-end product. It will come with fully developed APIs, and we are very excited about that. I can tell you with vendor consolidation and the platform approach we’ve taken, we just see a significant, what I would say, interest in this platform because it gives the big banks the ability to do their own front end, and it gives through the APIs, and it gives the smaller banks the ability to adopt the platform end-to-end, okay? And now you throw in the DocFox acquisition, which is going to cover — the SimpleNexus will cover your consumer and individual oriented businesses and use cases.

And then you bring in DocFox and you cover your deposit account opening and onboarding for the commercial side and the heavy complex side. So I just think that this piece of the puzzle is coming together. DocFox will take us six months for the first integration milestone and SimpleNexus will be after our nSight conference in May. It’ll be fully in the market and we’ll sell this across the platform.

Greg Orenstein: Yeah. So, Michael, again, nSight in May. We look forward to showing that to our customer base and prospects there. Again, we’re really excited about that technology. Make sure you’re there.

Unidentified Analyst: Got it. Thank you both.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question, Chris Kennedy with William Blair. Your line is open.

Chris Kennedy: Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Pierre, you talked about at least 15% subscription revenue growth in 2026. Can you just talk about kind of the puts and takes to that number as you sit here today?