nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Josh Glover: I think what’s important to note back to your question about how quickly we can ramp adoption of that. Our early adopters represent pieces of the US enterprise, US community regional and international customers. So this is something we feel will be globally applicable, and that’s why we’ve taken that approach with the innovation. It will be a much faster implementation than an nCino transformation. And that aligns with a lot of our other cross-sale and NIC solutions that you’ve seen. You’ve heard us talk about record-setting portfolio analytics deals. Those are also quick to adopt. I think that translates nicely to lots of our customers the problems that we solve and to how quickly we can see a ramp from that.

Greg Orenstein: Yeah, and Adam, it’s Greg just to note, well again, not necessarily breaking down product contribution. I will note, because I think it’s important that we’re not assuming revenue in fiscal ‘25 from banking advisor. So again, consistent with our rollout model, very methodical, make sure it’s battle tested. And ultimately, that’s what we’re focused on doing this year.

Adam Hotchkiss: Okay, really helpful. Thanks, everyone.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Alex Sklar with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Alex Sklar: Great. Thank you. The first question is for Pierre, Josh, or Paul, if he’s on. But you highlighted some of the fiscal ‘24 issues that impacted growth and I just wanted to see if you could elaborate a little bit more on the visibility going to FY ’25, that should drive that comment around 50% greater net bookings. And specifically how should we think about that between kind of improved gross bookings versus improved churn? Thanks.

Greg Orenstein: Yeah. Hey, Alex. It’s Greg. Just on the churn, I think it’s a combination of both in terms of, again, improved gross bookings, a little bit more consistent than what we saw last year, particularly in light of the liquidity crisis in Q1, but again, also an expectation as I tried to detail in my prepared remarks around the lower expectation [of the] (ph) churn. And so those two, I think, helped drive that 50% number and some of the confidence that we see going into as the year begins and the pipelines that we have.

Pierre Naude: Yeah, I want to emphasize our capacity on the field has increased year-over-year because we believe there’s a massive opportunity and our TAM and SAM supports that. That gross bookings growth along with lesser churn gives us a significant upside on the net bookings.

Alex Sklar: Okay, and then just a quick follow up. Any way you think about how that should flow into fiscal ‘25 versus fiscal ‘26? Is that mostly a ‘26 issue?

Pierre Naude: Yeah, so if you look at our revenue certainty or visibility as the year starts, we’re sitting around 93% to the middle of the guidance, okay? And so what we booked the first half of the year, there’s two main factors. It’s mix of product, in other words, how quickly it becomes revenue. It will be churned, as we see those indicators, because there’s some unknowns in churn always. We’ve been conservative, but you never know what’s going to happen. So those are the two main factors. And can we get the bookings early enough in the year, which — I’ll give you just a rough understanding of, if we can by mid-year have roughly around 40% of our total gross bookings for the year in, that is much more of a normal picture for the year and you get 60% in the back half.

That first six months of bookings still impacts this year’s P&L. And as you get later to the end of the year, that impacts a lot more into next year’s P&L, okay? So that gives you some color how we see. So actually, if you look at this year’s financial results, we need to get bookings early and often, and we need to contain churn. And those are the main factors for this year’s financials.

Alex Sklar: Great. Thank you both for that color.

Greg Orenstein: Thanks, Alex.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Nick Altmann with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Nick Altmann: Awesome. Thanks guys. I wanted to ask a question on the mortgage side of the business. It sounds like there is a pretty nice rebound in Q4, but can you maybe just talk about where you’re at with the transition to more of a consumption-based model? And going off that, how should we be thinking about the impacts to the model in FY ‘25?

Greg Orenstein: Yeah, Nick, if you think about the transition to more consumption base, which again has a committed platform fee and then which comes with a specific number of loans for that and then to the extent that there’s additional volume we would get upside from that. From a logo perspective, it’s about 25% to 30% of our mortgage base, probably a little bit higher from a revenue perspective. And so that’s where we are from a transition standpoint. Some customers, again, like the old seat-based model and it works for them and we’re comfortable with that. Again, we started this because a lot of customers who were trying to navigate the rise in interest rates came to us and wanted some relief and we agreed to work with them as the market was struggling through that, but again, we wanted upside on the other side and they worked with us for that.

So I think we’re positioned nicely as volumes come back. That said, if you go back to my prepared remarks, we aren’t expecting much improvement in the mortgage market until Q4 of this year. If you look at the MBA statistics, Q3 is where they see a pop. But again, we want to be prudent with our modeling as we think about the business and we think about managing the business. So that’s where we are as it relates to the mortgage opportunity.