Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NVGS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

The strong cash balance will be used for capital redistribution, the ethylene terminal expansion and for projects and investments that can enhance shareholder returns. The increase in net long-term debt is due to the financing of the 5 Greater Bay joint venture vessels, but noting that our net debt to adjusted EBITDA is now only 2.9 times as at September 30, 2023, giving us a really healthy position to work from, and with no loan maturities until 2025, as shown on Slide 8. Maturities for 2025 include the $100 million senior unsecured bond, which may or may not be refinanced depending on any investment opportunities that may occur, and the two bank facilities totaling $190 million will likely be refinanced at a higher than current loan to value as the vessels serving as collateral are amongst our younger vessels.

As a result, we expect that refinancing to be a cash positive event in 2025. On Slide 9, we outlined the estimated cash breakeven for 2023 at $19,260 per day. This low level relative to charter rates recalling TCE for the third quarter was $26,278, enables us to generate positive EBITDA throughout the shipping cycle. To the right on this slide is daily OpEx expectations for 2023 across our different vessel size segments, ranging from $7,600 per day for the smaller vessels to $10,100 per day for the larger more complex ethylene vessels. We also provide a range for the expected annual spend for vessel OpEx, G&A cost, depreciation and net interest expense. On Slide 10, we outline our historic quarterly adjusted EBITDA, showing a step-up over the past several quarters and a further step up this quarter.

On the right of Slide 10, we show our historical 2022 adjusted EBITDA bar, our LTM bar incorporating the latest quarter and an annualized adjusted EBITDA based on this quarter result. In addition, the EBITDA bars further to the right of those show the effects of an increase on adjusted EBITDA if average charter rates were to increase by increments of $1,000 per day. Then on Slide 11, given the numerous scheduled drydockings next year, we’ve included a final slide to help guide on this important topic. We have 19 vessels scheduled drydocking during 4Q 2023 through 4Q 2024, with a total of 456 off-high days and total drydocking CapEx expected of $24.8 million during 4Q ’23 through 4Q ’24. We’ll take these opportunities to install energy-saving technologies during these drydocks, such as some of those listed here.

And we have also guided on 2025 and 2026 drydocks for those that are interested in looking further ahead. So that’s the conclusion of the finance section for this third quarter, and I’ll now pass the mic to Oeyvind. Thank you. Over to you.

Oeyvind Lindeman: Thank you, Gary, and good morning from Houston. If you take a look at Slide 13. U.S. natural gas liquids production continues to grow, surpassing the 200 million barrels per day production milestones reached in August. The Energy Information Administration predicts further growth by end of the year. This strong production trend bolsters two key aspects for us, competitive prices for American LPG and ethane and increased throughput at various U.S. export terminals. Notably, LPG exports in August exceeded 60 million barrels per day, making a 10% increase from the same period in 2022. During the third quarter, U.S. handysize export cargo saw a slight increase compared to the second quarter. Despite the typical inventory buildup during the pre-winter months, we anticipate that North American handysize LPG volumes will continue exceeding 100,000 metric tons per month.

In the handysize segment, LPG is an important, but secondary story when talking about current North American shipping demand. The primary focus is linked to ethane, the largest component of the natural gas liquids production. On Slide 14, we direct attention to the graph in the lower left, illustrating the market dynamics. History shows that as long as ethane prices remain below $400 per metric ton, ethylene, being ethane’s derivative continues to flow from the U.S. to international markets. Currently, ethane is priced around $200 per metric ton, leading to an ethylene sale price in the U.S. of $480 per ton. This ethylene can be sold in Europe or Asia Pacific region for approximately $900 per ton today, leaving ample margin for terminal and marine transportation costs.

Our joint venture, Ethylene Export Terminal, and our fleet both benefit from this reality. Additionally, which is important to keep in mind, a high-oil-price environment further enhances the attractiveness of U.S. ethane to ethylene production and exports as the alternative substitute oil to ethylene becomes more costly. The distribution of ethylene export volumes is shifting back to a balance between European and Asia Pacific destinations as seen in the middle graph. However, current challenges with the Panama Canal locks causing disruptions in transit numbers are likely to temporarily shift more volumes towards Europe due to the shorter distance. We’ll take a closer look at the impacts of the Panama Canal in a moment. While the total U.S. volume of ethane has decreased slightly in recent months, on the right-hand graph, the combined volume of ethane and ethylene for handysize shipments has increased.