NatWest Group plc (NYSE:NWG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Alison Rose: Well, let me do deposit pass-through. So as we said, at the moment, our average pass-through is around 35%, we’re actively managing very carefully both sides of our balance sheet. The guidance we gave you previously was, as interest rates go higher, we would expect to pass a higher proportion through and the assumption we talked about is you should broadly assume, sort of 50%, we’re currently sitting at 35%, on pass-through, and we’ll continue to actively manage that based on the competition, our need for funding and liquidity, and you can see our funding and liquidity and capital position. So I think that probably gives you a sense of how we’re managing that. On mortgages, obviously, we have a predominantly fixed book, as you know, we have a small SVR book and tracker book, our mix is 66% on five year, and we know exactly which customers are rolling off during the course of this year.

And we contact them with six months before they roll off their fix. So we’ll actively manage that book. And we’ll continue to target in the same way we have done, and I think you’ve seen we’ve managed pretty turbulent markets very well, the balance between volume and value. Katie, do you want to pick up anything else on mortgages?

Katie Murray: Just on the mortgage, just to answer your quite specific point. So yes, there is the whole book, in terms of what we’re talking about 4% AUM tracker, 4% SVR, 92% fixed, as Allison says. In terms of the kind of color, you’re absolutely right, the fact that the book is now 60%, five year that that kind of dampen some of the effect a little bit, but I would probably encourage you, Chris, to cast your mind back to 2021. And what margins we were writing, they’re obviously rolling off a little bit. It’s not particularly significant as far as a drag on that. But there’s nothing exceptional to call out. But there will be a little bit of an impact from that that piece.

Chris Cant: Thank you. So just to confirm, we should be thinking that within the guidance, it’s something like a 50% pass-through assumed. And then, with regards to the mortgage book, there’s a little bit of sloppiness on I guess, the two-year piece that you would have been writing in 2021. But effectively, the big headwind, I mean, you’re essentially guiding for NIM down versus 4Q levels. The big headwind here is really that progression on the beta implicitly, I think.

Alison Rose: So what I would say on the beta is, we’re at 35%, we always assumed it would maybe get to 50. And so I think that’s an assumption will actively manage it based on competitive dynamics. So you’re right. What I would say it’s now less about pass-through and more about customer behavior. And we’re keeping a close eye on that, and I touched on that earlier.

Operator: Our next question comes from Aman Rakkar of Barclays.

Aman Rakkar: Could I ask the question around the deposit commentary? Thanks very much for kind of elaborating on that. I just wanted to kind of work out how you guys have factored in the potential deposit outflow dynamic, or what kind of risks you see going forward from deposit outflows. I guess the observation is that you’ve probably been the standout beneficiary of deposit inflows since 2019, and the various support schemes that are announced. And it’s allowed you to kind of outperform your own rate sensitivity, kept deposit betas very low. But looking forward, clearly the outlooks evolving. How do you think about the risk of outflows, your particular deposit mix and profile? And could you help us understand the potential earnings impact that you might expect, in particular, what you may have actually assumed as part of that 320 basis points NIM guide?

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