NatWest Group plc (NYSE:NWG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Alvaro Serrano: Follow up on margins, and another one on cost, please, on margin should help us assess the headwinds, I suppose you can share with us the proportion of term deposits within the balances. And on the mortgage side, I realized there’s been some adjustments to — in the product margin of mortgages in the quarter, but to assess the headwinds going forward. Could you share with us the application margins in Q4 and early trends in January maybe? And the second question on costs, it’s more about a sense of how much visibility you think you have now on costs. Obviously, a year ago, you were looking for a reduction of 3%. Now it’s more like five, do you feel you’ve got more certainty now? Is the outlook has narrowed in terms of going forward? What you could expect. And when I think about Ulster cost, when should we expect that to effectively shut down? Is that included in your less than 50% cost income in 2025? Thank you.

Alison Rose: So let me start with that. Fixed terms, single digits, mid-single digits and they don’t move very quickly. Cost visibility, I think we’ve given you some really clear visibility on costs and some guidance there. We’re starting to see inflation come down. And we actively manage our costs, as you can imagine. So I think, yes, on that. On Ulster costs, yes, those are included. So I think that’s covers that one. Mortgages. Katie, do you want to pick that one?

Katie Murray: Yes, sure. Absolutely. I’ll take that. So in terms of the mortgage pieces, as you know, Alvaro, we try not to get drawn to too deeply on the ins and outs on particular quarters. And I guess as I look at it, the Group, that Group declined from 150, sorry, 141, in Q3 down to 126. But if we think of how we’re kind of managing this book, and how we think about it, what we seek to do is to kind of manage it with an application margin, it’s in an arrange around at basis 80 bps. It will move a little bit up and down. But that’s kind of how we think of the managing of it. I would, of course, as you’d expect, encourage you to focus on the retail NIM, which at 274 is very strong, up 47 basis points in the quarter as well, that should help you a little bit on your math.

Operator: Our next question comes from Chris Cant of Autonomous.

Chris Cant: If I could just come back on the margin debate really? On your mortgage comment just then is the 126. Is that the whole book or is that just the fixed book, please. And in terms of the manifestation of that headwind? When I think about the 320, it doesn’t actually feel like that’s going to be as pronounced as I might have guessed, given that two-thirds of your book is in five years. Is there anything in particular you call out on the progression of the mortgage churn through ’23? Is there a particularly fat spread piece of the back book churning, which means it’s a more acute headwind, because given the two-thirds in five years, I guess that’s going to play out over a slightly longer period than we might have anticipated?

And then, if I could just come back on a previous question really around your deposit pass-through assumptions. Again, thinking about the various puts and takes it feels like you must be making a fairly conservative assumption in respect of deposit pass-through this year. Could I again, just ask around you’re expected migration upwards in that deposit beta assumption, the 35% across the interest-bearing book. How high are you assuming that goes in the coming quarters. Thank you.

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