National CineMedia, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCMI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mike Hickey: Hi, Tom, Ronnie, nice to hear from you guys again. Congratulations on your quarter and your emergence here. Just two questions. One, it looks like we’re close here to getting a resolution, Tom, on the strike. Maybe you’ve already heard, I don’t know, it sounds like they had a breakthrough and fingers crossed here that they get a deal done. Just curious if you can sort of expand upon how the strike has impacted your business in thinking about 4Q and 2024 and the fact we do get a resolution here, which, again, fingers crossed, how you’re thinking about the 2024 market growth opportunity. That’s the first question. Second question is…

Tom Lesinski: Let me answer that one. Let me answer that one first…

Mike Hickey: Yes, okay.

Tom Lesinski: …and then we can go to the second one because I want to make sure I remember everything you asked.

Mike Hickey: Yes, absolutely.

Tom Lesinski: So there has been no impact on this year’s business from the strike in terms of the cinema ad business. There was definitely some noticing of it in the upfront. Some of our entertainment specifically related advertisers were focused on the next 12 months. But what will happen is, assuming this gets resolved, Mike, in the next couple weeks, which I think we’re all optimistic about based on what happened today, it will take a probably 30 to 60 days for the studios to figure out where they are from a production point of view on the movies that are scheduled for 2024. So presumably within a relatively short time, they will get the actors’ schedules and their own production schedules sorted out. So we can’t give any more visibility on 2024 until they really make those announcements.

There have been three movies that have moved from 2024 to 2025. I suspect there will be additional movements going back and forth between 2024 and 2025, but you’ll know a lot more about that in the next, I would say, 30 to 60 days from the time the strikes resolved. And hopefully that will be well before Thanksgiving. What’s your second question?

Mike Hickey: Tom, just – just part two here, first question, if the box is sort of flat to slightly down next year, do you think you can still grow your business in that sort of environment?

Tom Lesinski: I think our goal is to look at 2024 regardless of how the box office and attendance looks as an opportunity to grow revenue per attendee. And I think realistically now that we have the restructuring behind us, and we’ve got an opportunity to really devote all of our attention and resources towards cinema advertising, I am optimistic that we can grow revenue per attendee next year.

Mike Hickey: Thanks. Part two here, second question, your 4Q guide looked great versus expectations. But year-over-year, a little bit down in revenue, a little bit more down in EBITDA. Just hoping Ronnie you could give us sort of the puts and takes there on 4Q. And I imagine given the hell that you guys have gone through, you’re probably being a bit conservative here, not to say that you are, but how are you thinking about philosophically guiding in this environment? Thanks, guys.

Ronnie Ng: So the fourth quarter this year, what went into our guidance is assuming that the softness that we see in the scatter market continues for the rest of the year. That’s really what’s kind of reflected on our estimate when you compare that versus the last year being slightly down. The adjusted OIBDA is obviously a reflection of some of that, but you also – here you have what the difference is also the new Regal Affiliate Agreement is baked into – obviously is baked into the fourth quarter of this year, which is on a different set of economics versus the prior year.

Mike Hickey: Thanks, Ronnie. Thanks, Tom.

Tom Lesinski: Thank you.

Operator: At this time, we are showing no further questionnaires in the queue, and this does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Tom Lesinskifor any closing remarks.