Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) on Natan’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MRNA. Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)’s share was trading at $26.67 as of 13^th June. MRNA’s trailing P/E was 7.06 according to Yahoo Finance.

Moderna’s stock has fallen nearly 94% from its pandemic-era highs, reflecting deep skepticism around its long-term revenue prospects. However, beneath the market’s pessimism lies a company with a vast and diversified pipeline of 45 candidates—eight in Phase 3 trials—and a strategic $20 billion R&D investment to date. Despite a battered valuation of just $11 billion, Moderna holds $8 billion in cash and likely has a base of $2–3 billion in recurring COVID vaccine revenue, supported by recent FDA guidance and potential future uptake improvements.

Near-term headwinds include reduced COVID vaccination rates, market share losses to competitors like Pfizer/BioNTech, and political volatility driven by anti-vaccine figures being appointed to key government health roles. These issues, though significant, have not derailed Moderna’s internal progress. Upcoming catalysts include expected Phase 3 data for its flu, CMV, and norovirus vaccines, and advancements in its personalized cancer vaccine program (INT), with Phase 3 melanoma data likely in 2026. New manufacturing facilities in Canada, the UK, and Australia could further expand market share post-2027, especially as European contracts with competitors expire. Moderna’s next-gen COVID vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, also offers improved efficacy.

Management is confident the company can reach profitability by 2028 without additional capital, and disciplined cost-cutting supports this.

While the market currently values Moderna’s enterprise at just $3 billion, that excludes pipeline potential and recurring COVID sales that alone might justify the entire market cap. For long-term investors, Moderna presents a contrarian opportunity: a misunderstood pipeline with real catalysts, trading at levels that ignore its scientific and commercial progress.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Moderna, Inc. by YouAlwaysHaveAChoice in February 2025, which highlighted near-term catalysts, institutional buying, and technical momentum. The thesis presented by Natan takes a long-term view, emphasizing Moderna’s deep pipeline, cash reserves, and undervalued recurring revenue, presenting it as an opportunity with multi-year upside potential

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database,38 hedge fund portfolios held Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) at the end of the first quarter which was 44 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of MRNA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.