Mobileye Global Inc. (NASDAQ:MBLY) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So adjusting again the quantities was impossible actually in 2023. In 2023, we know the supply chain crisis largely was over but it was still unclear when will global production get back to normal to pre-COVID levels, which might be the reason that the Tier 1s kept holding this inventory through the year. They were also, again, obligated with commitments, but they held it through the year and we weren’t informed of such quantity. Over the course of 2023, we believe that our core customers underperformed in terms of production for our top customers, which make the majority of our ADAS customers, they grew 4% versus the overall market growing of 9%. And then towards the end of the year, when the commitments were ending, and now in 2024 we got back to normal in terms of orders, so we have quarterly orders and customers can adjust to the quarterly, we think that’s the reason it came up towards the end of 2023 and not at the beginning of the year or some other time during this period.

Emmanuel Rosner: Understood. That is helpful. And then just a quick one on SuperVision. I guess as part of this update a few weeks or so ago, you also sort of tweaked down expectations for SuperVision units in 2024. I think part of it was maybe an exercise in de-risking around like timing launches. Could you provide us sort of similar type of de-risking around what the trajectory looks like beyond 2024? Obviously, launches have generally sort of happened a little bit later than expected, at CES about a year or so ago. So just want to make sure that investor expectations are properly calibrated for what’s beyond 2024 in the ramp-up initially when you only have sort of a few initial customers.

Amnon Shashua: Yeah, At the beginning of 2023, we had a small number of car models and it’s difficult to make accurate forecasts. Today, we have 30 car models and we can improve our forecasts. For 2023, in production we had two car models in China to base our forecast and all what we had to rely on was OEM numbers which turned out to be optimistic. Now we know that most of the production of SuperVision is coming out in 2026. By 2025, we’ll have between nine to 11 models of SuperVision. Now the five models from the Geely Group, two from ZEEKR, one from Smart, one from Polestar, one from Volvo, and then between four to six car models from the FAW. So that’s the production in 2024 and 2025. And then in 2026, we have Porsche and we have the big western OEM with 17 car models and we have Mahindra.

Dan Galves: And just one follow up from me, this is Dan. In terms of calibration, for the leading edge analysts that have calibrated their models and estimates to the tracking document that we provided at CES, as well as their own updated analysis, these estimates look reasonable and achievable to us. Thank you. Next question.

Operator: Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays. Please proceed.

Dan Levy: Hi. Good afternoon to you. Thank you for taking questions. I wanted to start with just tying to your comments about the engagements with 11 OEMs, I think broadly there is this narrative out there that, like you said, automakers do want to own technology, but the challenge is it’s been very difficult to scale and there’s a notable example of a North American automaker that is pulling back on some of their more advanced ADAS plans given some struggles there. So to what extent are you seeing more engagement with automakers that despite the desire to own the technology really are coming to the realization that they have no choice but to come to you because you are the easiest and fastest way to scale? To what extent are you seeing automakers come around to you?

Nimrod Nehushtan: Yeah, I’ll take it. So I think what we are seeing is this domino effect that in one sense it is becoming a realization in the industry that the next few years are going to be very heavily influenced by OEM’s ability to offer these products that offer hands-free driving, eyes-off driving, and it is going to become a more — a growingly more important feature for consumers. And this is what gives rise to the sense of urgency amongst OEMs to create the shortest path they can for a high quality product. And maybe a few years ago, it was still — OEMs had the perception that they have some time to invest and they can take the longer path to get there while still owning the technology stack. Now the clock is ticking for them and they are looking for the kind of the best performance at the shortest time to market so that they can compete.

And we already see this dynamic happening in China and it’s growing outside of China already today. So we do see more and more traction from OEMs who were maybe in the past more bullish on owning the technology stack who have come to a realization that they need to at least find a parallel path inside their company to de-risk the activity towards the next generation of ADAS products. So a certain portion of our engagements are with OEMs who have invested significantly in the past in in-house activities. Can say that.

Amnon Shashua: I can say a lot of it that it’s really a flywheel effect. A few years ago, the only reference to such a system was the Tesla Autopilot and FSD. Now you have Chinese automakers with systems of a similar setup and those Chinese automakers are also — some of the models are being exported to the West and those are mobilized systems. Now they know that Porsche and the big western OEM are also going to introduce these systems. So it creates a flywheel effect. And as an OEM, you need to cater to the rising competition in terms of intelligent driving. So this creates more and more incentive to start working with Mobileye on these advanced products, whether instead of their in-house development or in parallel to their in-house development.