We came across a bullish thesis on MGM Resorts International on The Rational Investor’s Substack by Maxx Waring. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MGM. MGM Resorts International’s share was trading at $36.36 as of February 11th. MGM’s trailing and forward P/E were 49.16 and 17.83 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. MGM presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by multiple near- and long-term catalysts. Despite a temporary slowdown in Las Vegas tourism and room remodels at the MGM Grand in 2025, the company is executing a strategic plan that positions it for substantial upside.
MGM is aggressively buying back 7-8% of its shares annually, funded by a business generating a 14.2% Owner Earnings yield. BetMGM, the company’s 50/50 digital sports betting and iGaming joint venture, turned profitable in 2025, distributing $100 million back to MGM and setting the stage for $125-200 million in cash distributions in 2026, providing a direct boost to buybacks and Owner Earnings.
Additional near-term catalysts include the Northfield Park sale, closing in the first half of 2026, which will inject $420 million of proceeds for share repurchases, and the stabilization of Las Vegas Strip operations as MGM Grand’s remodels are completed, conventions return, and RevPAR growth resumes. MGM China’s ongoing recovery continues to provide $200-300 million in annual dividends, further funding capital returns. The company is also executing the Osaka integrated resort in Japan, scheduled to open in 2030.
MGM’s 42.5% stake in Osaka represents a future $350-450 million annual Owner Earnings contribution, supported by monopoly positioning and a lower tax rate relative to Macau. GAAP net income is expected to swing from loss to profit in 2026 as one-time charges abate, attracting investor attention.
At the current share price, MGM trades at roughly 7x Owner Earnings with significant buyback acceleration underway. With stabilized core operations, growing digital cash flows, and Osaka’s long-term potential, MGM Resorts offers an attractive risk/reward profile with a bullish target of Buy up to $46 per share.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on MGM Resorts International (MGM) by David in April 2025, highlighting its asset-light transition, strong brand and real estate moat, disciplined buybacks, and resilient cash flows. MGM’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 38.25% since our coverage. Maxx Waring shares a similar bullish view but emphasizes near-term catalysts like BetMGM profitability, Northfield Park sale, Las Vegas Strip stabilization, and Osaka, projecting a Buy up to $46 per share.
MGM Resorts International is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 52 hedge fund portfolios held MGM at the end of the third quarter which was 58 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of MGM as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MGM and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.
