MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Nate Richam: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Scott Heleniak : Yes, good morning. Just wondering if you could talk about the — give a little more color on the sequential increase in defaults you kind of expected for Q4. I know you kind of mentioned that was seasonally. You just mentioned a little bit more on that. But is that just kind of a modest uptick and nothing really significant, just kind of off low levels? Anything more you can add on that?

Nathan Colson : Yes, Scott, it’s Nathan. I think that is how we think about it. Historically, the third quarter back to the many years pre-COVID. The third quarter was seasonally, a harder year, a harder quarter rather, for new notices. The first half of the year, a little better just from a seasonal credit standpoint. So I think when we look at it, the comparisons to 2021 and 2022, I think are less meaningful for us just given the unique dynamics in those years. I think when you look at 2018-2019 for us, even though we have a much larger book now, still seeing on account basis, delinquencies that are 13% compared to 2019 and even lower compared to 2018 still feels like a very strong credit environment to us.

Scott Heleniak : Okay. That’s helpful. And then just I wonder if you’re able to quantify the impact from canceling the quota share and the tender from the ILN a little bit further? Is there anything more — I think you said there was a positive, but is there anything more you can add on to that? Or is it too early to know?

Nathan Colson : Sure no, and we did in the earnings release, we did try to put some numbers in. But just on the quota share side, we expect that we will pay a cancellation fee of approximately $5 million that will go through ceded premium in the fourth quarter. And then on the tender side of things, we paid a tender premium of approximately $8 million in October. So that will also run through Q4 ceded premium. And those will benefit the ceded premium run rate then in 2024 and beyond.

Scott Heleniak : Okay. Great. That’s all I have. Thanks.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Next question comes from Eric Hagen with BTIG. Your line is open.

Eric Hagen : Hey thanks. Good morning. Hope you guys do well. Hey, what’s your perspective on conditions in the reinsurance market and even how those conditions drive pricing and competitiveness in the market just against the backdrop of high interest rates and how it even kind of drives your ability and your willingness or your appetite to return capital next year? Thank you.

Tim Mattke : It’s Tim. I can start and Nathan could probably add a little bit. I think we feel that the reinsurance markets and I guess I sort of slipping into the traditional reinsurance markets as well as the capital markets. I think at the beginning of this year, we had said we’re skeptical if we’d be able to execute ILN in the capital markets. And again, from a planning standpoint, we don’t plan on that. But when they’re open and they’re available at attractive sort of conditions, we like to be able to execute. So I think we feel very favorable at that aspect. From the traditional reinsurance markets, much more stability there. I think it’s fair to say that as we had concerns with increasing interest rates and what would happen with home prices a year ago, I think a lot of our reinsurance partners had similar questions.