Matson, Inc. (NYSE:MATX) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Matson, Inc. (NYSE:MATX) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript April 30, 2024

Matson, Inc. beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $1.04, expectations were $0.99. Matson, Inc. isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

Operator: Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Matson’s First Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Justin Schoenberg, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Justin Schoenberg: Thanks, Liz [ph]. Joining me on the call today are Matt Cox, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Joel Wine, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Slides from this presentation are available for download at our website, www.matson.com, under the Investors tab. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events. We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable. We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements in the press release, the presentation slides and this conference call.

These risk factors are described in our press release and presentation and are more fully detailed under the caption Risk Factors on Pages 13 to 25 of our Form 10-K filed on February 23, 2024, and in our subsequent filings with the SEC. Please also note that the date of this conference call is April 30, 2024, and any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Matt.

Matt Cox: Okay. Thanks, Justin, and thanks to those on the call. I’ll start on Slide 3. Matson is off to a solid start for the year with Ocean Transportation performing better than expected and Logistics meeting our expectations for the first quarter of 2024. In Ocean Transportation, operating income was roughly flat year-over-year reflecting an improvement over our outlook provided in late February. Our China service experienced healthy demand coming out of a more traditional post-Lunar New Year period with higher year-over-year freight rates but with lower year-over-year volume. We have lower year-over-year volumes in Hawaii and Alaska. And in Guam, the volume was flat year-over-year. In Logistics, operating income declined year-over-year due to continued market softness in transportation brokerage.

As a result of the performance in the first quarter, and expected improving demand for our CLX and MAX services, we are raising our full year outlook. For 2024, we now expect consolidated operating income to be modestly higher than the $342.8 million achieved in 2023, with a higher contribution from Ocean Transportation than in our previous outlook from February. Joel will go into more detail on our updated outlook later in the presentation. I will now go through the first quarter performance of our trade lanes, SSAT and Logistics; so please turn to the next slide. Hawaii container volume for the first quarter decreased 1.7% year-over-year due to lower general demand. Tourist arrivals in the first quarter were comparable year-over-year despite the continued impact to Maui tourism from last year’s wildfires.

For the full year 2024, we expect volume to approach the level achieved last year. Please turn to Slide 5. According to UHERO’s first quarter 2024 Economic Report, the Hawaii economy is projected to grow modestly in 2024 underpinned by low unemployment rate and increasing construction activity. Construction jobs are projected to increase due to large federal and state contracts, and homebuilding on Oahu [ph]. Tourism is projected to increase modestly as the industry continues to recover from the Maui wildfires last year, and the gradual return of international visitors. While UHERO projects modest economic growth in 2024, our outlook is a little more cautious reflecting feedback from our retail related customers that saw tepid demand for consumer goods in the first quarter and expect to see this sluggish environment continue in the near term.

Moving to our China service on Slide 6; Matson’s volume in the first quarter of 2024 was 4% lower year-over-year, with lower volume for both CLX and MAX. We achieved average freight rates that were higher year-over-year. Please turn Slide 7. Our China service experience healthy demand coming out of a more traditional post-Lunar New Year period, with a gradual recovery of volume after factories reopened, and workers return compared to a more accelerated increase in volume experienced post-Lunar New Year last year. The ramp in volume in the post-Lunar New Year period met our expectations but our freight rates in the post-Lunar New Year period were higher than we expected. Currently in the TransPacific marketplace, we continue to see steady US consumer demand.

For 2024, we expect improving demand for CLX and MAX services in 2024 as compared to 2023. We also expect average freight rates to be higher than the 2023 levels. We’re in a good position with CLX and MAX, and our primary focus with these two service is to consistently demonstrate the speed and reliability that our customers have enjoyed. Please turn to the next slide. In Guam, Matson’s container volume in the first quarter of 2024 was flat year-over-year. In the near term, we expect continued improvement in the Guam economy with low unemployment rate and a modest increase in tourism. For 2024, we expect container volume to approximate the level achieved last year. Please turn to the next slide. In Alaska, Matson’s container volume for the first quarter 2024 decreased 5.1% year-over-year, primarily due to one less northbound sailing compared to last year.

Adjusting for one less sailing, North-bound volume was roughly flat, and overall Alaska volume decreased 1.7%. In the near term, we expect continued economic growth in Alaska, supported by a low unemployment rate, jobs growth and a lower level of inflation. For 2024, we expect Alaska volume to approximate the level achieved last year. Please turn to Slide 10. Our terminal joint venture, SSAT, increased $2.2 million year-over-year to $0.4 million. The higher contribution was primarily due to higher lift volumes. In 2024, we expect the contribution from SSAT to be higher than 2023 due to an expected increase in lift volumes. Turning now to slide to Logistics on Slide 11. Operating income in the first quarter came in at $9.3 million, or approximately $1.6 million lower than the result in the year ago period.

The decrease was primarily due to lower contribution from transportation brokerage. For 2024, we expect challenging business conditions for the transportation brokerage to continue and as such, we expect operating income to be lower than the level achieved in 2023. I will now turn the call over to my partner Joel for a review of our financial performance. Joel?

Joel Wine: Okay. Thanks, Matt. Now on to our financial results on Slide 12. For the first quarter, consolidated operating income decreased $1.8 million year-over-year to $36.9 million with Ocean Transportation declining $0.2 million, and Logistics declining $1.6 million. Ocean Transportation operating income in the first quarter experienced higher vessel operating costs, including fuel related expenses and the timing of fuel related surcharge collections, partially offset by higher freight rates in China. As Matt noted, the decrease in Logistics operating income was primarily due to a lower contribution from transportation brokerage. We had an interest income of $8.8 million in the quarter, an increase of $0.6 million year-over-year due to higher interest rates on our cash and cash equivalents and CCF cash deposits and investments in fixed rates and fixed rate US Treasuries.

Interest expense in the quarter decreased $2.3 million year-over-year due to the decline in outstanding debt in the past year. Net income increased 6.2% year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share increased 10.6% year-over-year with a difference between the two due to a 4.7% increase or decrease [ph] in the diluted weighted average shares outstanding. Please turn to Slide 13. This slide shows how we allocated our trailing 12 months of cash flow generation. For the LTM period, we generated cash flow from operations of approximately $450.4 million, from which we used $46.2 million to retire debt, $214.2 million on maintenance and other CapEx, $53.6 million on new vessel CapEx including capitalized interest and owners items offset by $20.9 million withdrawn from our capital construction fund, $14.2 million on other cash outflows while returning approximately $207.3 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchase.

Please turn to Slide 14 for a summary of our share repurchase program and balance sheet. During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately 4.4 million shares for a total cost of $48.9 million including taxes. Since we initiated our share repurchase program in August of 2021 through March of this year, we have repurchased approximately 10 million shares or 23% of our stock for a total cost of approximately $804 million. As we have said before, we are committed to returning excess capital to shareholders and plan to continue to do so in the absence of any large organic or inorganic growth investment opportunities. Turning to our debt levels; our total debt at the end of the first quarter was $430.5 million, a reduction of $10.1 million from the end of the fourth quarter.

Last on April 19, 2024, Matson received a federal tax refund related to the company’s 2021 federal tax return of $118.6 million, as well as $10.2 million in interest income earned on the tax refund. The tax refund was placed into cash and cash equivalents and is expected to be used for general corporate purposes. With that, let me now turn to Slide 15 and walk through our outlook for the full year and the second quarter of 2024. For the full year 2024, we expect year-over-year growth in Ocean Transportation operating income and for it to be higher than the outlook from the February earnings call based on the performance of Ocean Transportation in the first quarter, and expected improving demand for the CLX and MAX services. After a significant change in the trajectory of the US economy, we expect trade demand dynamics across most of our trade lanes in 2024 to be comparable to 2023 as consumer related spending is expected to remain largely stable.

For Logistics, we expect challenging business conditions for transportation brokerage, which we expect to lead to lower year-over-year business segment operating income. As a result, we now expect consolidated operating income to be modestly higher than the level achieved in the prior year with quarterly seasonality patterns similar to 2023. In addition to this full year operating income outlook we expect the following for the full year; depreciation and amortization to be approximately $180 million, inclusive of $27 million for drydock amortization. Interest income to be approximately $45 million and interest expense to be approximately $8 million. Other income to be approximately $7 million, and effective tax rate of approximately 22% and drydocking payments of approximately $35 million.

The interest income outlook we are providing is based on current CCF deposits, and cash and cash equivalents invested at current short-term government money market rates, as well as the CCF fixed rate portfolio yielding 4.53%. This outlook includes the $10.2 million and the interest income received on April 19, 2024 with respect to our federal tax refund. For the second quarter of 2024, we expect Ocean Transportation operating income to be moderately higher than the $82.4 million achieved in the second quarter of 2023 and Logistics operating income to be lower than the $14.3 million achieved in the second quarter of 2023. As such, we expect consolidated operating income in the second quarter to be modestly higher than the prior year. We expect interest income to be approximately $18 million, including $10.2 million of interest earned on our 2021 federal tax return that I mentioned before.

Moving to Slide 16; the table on the slide shows the CapEx projection for 2024 to 2026. This outlook remains unchanged from what we provided on our fourth quarter call in February. Again, milestone payments for new vessel construction are expected to be paid from the Capital Construction Fund, which already covers two-thirds of the remaining obligations. I will now turn the call back over to Matt.

Matt Cox: Okay, thanks Joel. Matson had a solid start to the year. We have a great balance sheet and are well funded on our Aloha Class legal [ph] program as Joel just described. We are positioned well in all of our markets to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. So far, 2024 is shaping up to be another good year for Matson. And with that, I will turn the call back to the operator and ask for your questions.

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Q&A Session

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jacob Lacks with Wolfe Research.

Jacob Lacks: During your second quarter, you did imply the pretty big sequential ramp from 1Q. Is that all volume or is there pricing there too? And then, any way you can give us a bit of a sense of what you’re thinking when you say up modestly, for consolidated EBITDA in second quarter?

Matt Cox: Yes, Jake. Let me let me answer part of it. And then, I’ll turn it over to Joel for his comments. So I think what we’re seeing Jake is a — we said this in our prepared comments, a more traditional first quarter. And by that I mean, a little bit longer period of ramping backup after the Lunar New Year holiday. And in some ways, 2024 was the first year since the pandemic that we saw kind of a longer period as the factory workers went to their home provinces, and didn’t need to rush back to fill orders. And so in some ways, it feels like this is going to be our normal moving forward, seasonality. And so traditionally, the first is the weakest quarter in our business; I think we’re returning to that. But we saw nice volumes coming out of — from the Lunar New Year period as volume started to ramp back up.

We also noted in our commentary that freight rates will be higher than they were in the year ago period. So all in all, separate from the comment that Joel made below the line on interest income, which was this interest on the tax refund, that’s a onetime benefit; we are expecting to see Ocean Transportation be better. And I’ll let Joel comment on the specific wording there.

Joel Wine: When we say modestly, we just mean a little bit more, you know, it’s meant to be just nothing more than regular plain English; so not dramatic. And then when we say the word moderately, that’s a little bit more than modestly; so that’s how that’s how we use those words.

Jacob Lacks: Okay. Makes sense. And then last quarter when we spoke, you mentioned you hadn’t seen any real impact from the Red Sea disruptions with fall rates remaining elevated; is that still the case? Or is some of that starting to bleed through to your business?

Matt Cox: Yes, I would say — I’ll answer the question more generally, and then I’ll answer it specific to our business. But I think what we have seen is that the carriers that are traditionally used in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, most of that capacity now has gone as you know, around to Africa. And what we — there has been additional capacity deployed on all those trades in order to accommodate the longer transits. I would say that’s been relatively painless from customer supply chain perspectives. Of course, the transits are longer, but from a delivery from a port deployment, and whether that’s cargo that’s destined for the med or Europe or the US East Coast via that; so we haven’t really seen much disruption as an industry, and it’s certainly — we haven’t really seen much routing other than very much on the margin.

There are a few countries like Vietnam or places in Southeast Asia that can look at if cargo was destined for the East Coast, but that’s been — I would say single percentage changes in routing; so it continues to be relatively small in terms of its impact on Matson.

Jacob Lacks: That’s helpful. And then, as we think about SSAT, it was slightly profitable in the quarter, and it contributed around $4 million in fourth quarter. Is there any reason why this can’t sort of — I mean, clearly there’s Lunar New Year affecting volumes in the first quarter. Is there any reason it can’t get back to 4Q profitability levels as we progressed through the year?

Matt Cox: I think we’re going to see continued improvement in SSAT. I think that it’s probably going to take us into 2025 before we see a more normalized level of profitability, I’m speaking to full year profitability rather than any individual quarter; we’ve seen improvement. I think we believe we’ve hit volume bottom from the volume perspective, and we’re going to see steady improvement from here based on our views of the market on the US West Coast. So, it’s probably just going to take a little bit longer than some of our other businesses that have recovered more quickly.

Jacob Lacks: All right, thanks for the time.

Matt Cox: Okay, thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Daniel [ph] with Stephens.

Unidentified Analyst: Good evening, guys. Thanks for taking our questions. I want to also start maybe on the demand side for Ocean. I think you sound a little bit better than others maybe on US demand and kind of what you’re hearing. I’m curious, how much of that is with your existing customers; is this more of a secular shift from air freight to expedited [ph] ocean that you think you’re seeing with your shippers? And then, you know, how does the growth of new — maybe e-commerce players with any change in your customer outlook that’s kind of informing that demand view because I think the slides — they do expect better pricing and demand year-over-year?

Matt Cox: Yes, sure. Let me let me take a crack at that. So I would say that, if you look at — let me start by talking about macro supply and demand factors that informed the TransPacific trade, and then I’ll talk about Matson, specifically. So if you look at volumes coming into the West Coast, we’re seeing improvement year-over-year, we’ve seen growth year-over-year in those volumes. And partly is, in our view and in talking to our customers, the US consumer continues to hang in there; the economy is still plugging along. In absence of significant disruption that we don’t foresee, we’re going to continue to continue to see strong and steady consumer demand. So if you use that as the starting point, you see volume growing year-over-year on the US West Coast for all of the international ocean carriers; those are positive.

I think on the international ocean side, not specific to Matson, you’ve seen rates that are higher than the previous year. But if you pivot to Matson and look at some of the fundamentals that will drive our expedited market demand, we see the fundamentals continue to be very much in place. And what are those? And we’ve described those previously; of course, the macro US consumer demand is a significant factor. But if you look at healthy and expensive airfreight markets, continued growth of e-commerce, healthy customer inventory levels meaning no big overhangs of inventory, normal adjustments for late orders production problems; all of those factors go towards what we believe to be continuing strong demand in our CLX and MAX service, our two expedited services.

So our position was and continues to be, if we can be the fastest and second fastest and most reliable carrier, we’re going to get the lion’s share of this expedited market and give us reason to be confident in raising our outlook somewhat.

Unidentified Analyst: And then maybe Joel, on the cash flow side, I just wanted to follow-up. We think obviously maintenance and other CapEx — is going to drop-off pretty materially in a couple years? Just kind of curious with most of the new vessel payments already funded, what are your capital priorities for the accelerating free cash flow? And how do you anticipate — maybe the cadence of that spending whether it’s buyback or debt paydown or what have you?

Joel Wine: So — I mean the debt paid — not much debt paid out because the debt that we have, the $430 million; $150 million of that is pretty attractively priced long-term private placements around 3.2% interest expense, fixed. And then the other $280 million is very attractive [indiscernible] at 1.2% fixed rates; so we have really low fixed cost rate debt, it only amortizes $40 million a year. So we’ll continue to do that; and so I wouldn’t expect a lot of change with that overall program from a debt perspective. So — and you’re right, the maintenance CapEx should be coming down, most of that goes towards equipment replacement and our overall network of operations; we don’t have into the forecast a continued number of new engine projects or LNG projects that really cycles through the next year to 18 months.

So you’re looking at a more normalized environment of regular CapEx for the company, putting aside the new vessels; so that does lead to a lot of free cash flow. And the privatization there will continue to be primarily towards just a steady dividend policy, and we’ve raised dividend every year over 12 years as we’ve earned it. So we continue to use that as a tool to reward shareholders as we’ve earned a free cash flow overtime. But then majority of it wouldn’t be going towards share repurchase, which is what we’ve been doing. Absent any kind of large investments in M&A or organic opportunities, Daniel [ph], that we would expect to continue that. And that’s how we’ve talked about share purchasing on a pretty steady basis for a long, long time because that’s the picture that we see.

Unidentified Analyst: And then to clarify on that with the tax payment of $190 million [ph] you received; I guess how much of the new vessel payments you need over the coming years, it is either pre-funded, been the CCF [ph] or is that covered? I’m curious how much is now just already accounted for as you look forward?

Joel Wine: We paid about $100 million of the total $1 billion [ph], so we have about $900 million more to go. And the CCF currently has about $606 million; so just rough order, that’s about $300 million more than we would need to fund. We are earning interest at this cash investment rate; there’s a lot of interest income that we’ll earn over the next 24 to 36 months that will help. But then also, ultimately overtime, as we get into 2026, sometime in Q2, Q3 of 2026 we’ll have probably used all the CCF funds to apply those towards milestone payments. And then around that time, we’ll probably then put more money into the CCF to take care of the remaining milestone payments in 2026 and 2027. And that will be funds that will come from our cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet there today.