MasterBrand, Inc. (NYSE:MBC) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Andi, is there anything?

Andrea H. Simon: Yes. Maybe just kind of add we talked a bit about our tech-enabled initiatives and want to talk about how that’s really helping us with working capital. It’s not just about volume coming down and adjusting inventory. We’re fundamentally reducing our need for inventory and improving our collections. And just a couple of examples using the MasterBrand way, we’ve developed a pretty robust S&OP program, and that’s really been a key driver in the year-to-date reduction of inventory of $100 million. And then secondly, we have really embraced our tech-enabled initiative to improve the data availability of our customers and customer receivables and it’s allowed us to collect faster and more completely. So those types of trends despite the cyclicality, those types of improvements will continue.

And probably this is a good time to mention just a reminder on the Q4 on cash flow again we expect great operational performance and cash flow generated from that. However, as we stated in the last quarter that Q4 has some unique cash outflows that will offset that cash flow generation we’ve done year-to-date. And again, it’s related to the final Fortune related spend payment of about $30 million we have remaining capex to go out the door of about $30 million, and most of that is related to the timing of invoices and when they’re due and paid. We are increasing that FE investment, and we’ll have even though working capital again keeps improving, that’s slowing a pace of improvement will occur in the Q4. So just a reminder of that, and that’s why we stated in our comments, we expect that free cash flow to be positive, but not at the level we’ve seen year-to-date.

Thomas Mcnally Mahoney: Got it. I appreciate that color on the cadence. And then – as you look out into 2024 and think about the market environment, I realize that it’s early, but is there any way you could characterize how you’re thinking about 2024 from a demand perspective, primarily on the repair-remodel side is my question, but curious what thoughts you have there?

R. David Banyard: Yes, Tom, we’re not going to give an outlook today. We will, on our normal course as part of our guidance in the Q4 earnings next year. I think what I will say is that the market is hard to gauge right now. And so the way we’re approaching that is we do scenario planning. And I think that what our strategy is designed to do is to give us the flexibility to be nimble in any environment that we enter into. And I think you saw a lot of the elements of that this year. We plan to head for this year. We saw what was coming. We took the appropriate action from a fixed standpoint and then really went to work hard on continuous improvement and that’s – as I said, that’s our methodology. We look at what we think might happen.

In this case, I would say we have a multiple – several scenarios that we think might happen. And that applies – this year, obviously, it was in focusing on a down environment. We don’t know there could be a wide variety of outcomes next year. We want that flexibility and that nimble behavior to apply both up or down that we can react both with – from an overall picture of our capacity. But beyond that, just how we can drive continuous improvement to be able to deliver on whichever direction the market goes. So that’s how we think about planning. We’ve done that planning so far with our budget, but not ready yet to really tell you what we think about the market, because, frankly, changes quite a bit week to week here right now. And so we’re letting that settle out a little bit before we really tell you which scenario we think is most likely.

Thomas Mcnally Mahoney: Understood, that’s helpful.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julio Romero with Sidoti. Please proceed with your question.

Alex Hantman: Yes, hi, thank you. This is Alex Hantman on for Julio. Could we talk a little bit about the impact of higher interest rates, curious how you guys think about this directly and indirectly across the value chain?

R. David Banyard: Sure. I mean I think higher interest rates in general put a damper on housing activity, in particular, higher ticket housing activity, so that’s going to be, a, the home purchase. Obviously, it’s a direct input to the cost of the home because most people borrow or to certain projects that people might do if they’re planning on borrowing against their home equity. So generally speaking, high interest rates is not a good thing for the housing market. What I would say is the way the market behaves, and it’s been an interesting year in that regard in that I think stability is another key factor in decision-making around housing. And that plays in when the consumer has money to spend when the home – when the consumer feels that the home is worth what the price tag says or what they’ve paid for it gives them that wealth effect and so with interest rates stabilize in a particular zone, they feel more comfortable taking the action.

And I think you’re seeing that with new construction this year, a, I think it’s a proof point that there’s demand, there’s underlying demand for housing in the world, because, as interest rates have significantly increased this year, new construction continues to plug along very nicely. So I look for, a, there’s an absolute interest rate to look at, but I also look at the rate of change and consumers generally just don’t like rates of change when things cost thing. It’s sort of similar to inflation. So I look for stability in rates. We saw that coming out of 2022 into 2023. And I think that sparked some demand in the new construction in that rates, although higher stabilized for a while. So people plan – you just plan better when you can see something that’s stable.