MasTec, Inc. (NYSE:MTZ) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So we’ve spent months going through every possible project that exists, every project that we’re being asked to participate in. We’re prioritizing those that we think have a really high degree and level of confidence that are going to absolutely happen in 2024, and that’s how we’re building our 2024 plan. I mean, what really changes is if the market improves, right? If – once tax equity gets behind us, which we expect to happen by year-end, and people get to start financing projects in multiple ways, we think that’s going to create a huge catalyst of new projects of which many we’re going to be involved with. And we think that will be a big catalyst of the business. We’re not really including a lot of that as we think about 2024 because we’re not 100% sure of the timing.

So again, we’re hoping that as the year starts, we’ve built our plan with a very solid customer base, and then we can grow that based on some of the opportunities that are going to come as the year progresses.

Andy Kaplowitz: Appreciate the color, Jose.

Operator: We will take our next question from Steven Fisher from UBS. Please go ahead.

Steven Fisher: Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to focus on the cash flow a little bit, specifically in terms of the timing. I think you may have mentioned that the positive cash flow will continue into Q1 of next year? And I’m really just kind of curious about the cadence of how that cash flow will develop next year? Is it positive, you’re saying in Q1 and Q2 is maybe a little weaker than Q3, Q4, again, just kind of curious how the debt reduction might go over the course of the year?

Paul Dimarco: Yes, Steven, this is Paul. So I think it should be a similar cadence to the year. We haven’t laid out each quarter yet. But we do expect Q1 because of weather and normal seasonal challenges to be a lower volume quarter, so that should facilitate less working capital requirement. And then you’re right, as we ramp through the middle of the year, we’d expect some investment there that hopefully can largely offset with stronger earnings, but we’d be less cash flow generation in the middle of the year and there’s some ability to reduce debt going into Q4.

Steven Fisher: Okay. That’s helpful. And then just on the communication side of things for next year. I think you said high-single-digits. Maybe you can just clarify that? And within that, I guess I’m curious – and that’s the growth. If there’s any color you can give on a breakout between wireless and fiber because it sounds like you are experiencing a bit of a slowdown in fiber as you go into Q4 here. What have you assumed on some of those trends for next year? Just to kind of gauging the comfort of getting to what looks like a pretty robust growth number and estimate given some of the overhangs of what we’re experiencing right now from some of these telecom companies?

Jose Mas: Yes, Steve. So it’s Jose. I’d say a couple of things, right? I think this year, we were obviously impacted by the slowdown in wireless. I think our wireline business is up strong for the full year, will be strong for the full year as we close the year out. A little bit of a slowdown in the second half of the year that we were hoping wouldn’t happen, and I think that is some management of CapEx. And obviously, as the credit environment changes, we’ve had different customers do different pullbacks. With that said, we’ve got a bunch of awards during this year in 2023 that didn’t have a lot of volume, that had a lot of engineering associated with the projects that we knew the volume would kick in 2024, and these are a lot of the government RDOF-funded projects where that initial activity in engineering is really important, but it’s low dollar.

And once it turns in construction, it has a meaningful impact. And we have a number of those that starting late Q1, early Q2 going to construction, which are going to have a significant amount of increased revenue in 2024 versus 2023. So as we planned out 2024, and again, we’re really early, we took a very conservative assumption on where wireless goes from here based on the conversations we’ve had with our customers. And we’ve kind of built the balance in that growth plan based on really project activity awards from 2023 without making much assumption for new things going into 2024, even though there are some opportunities. Again, it’s important to talk about bead funding, which we really don’t even see impacting the business until 2025 because a lot of that is going to be awarded in 2024.

So we feel good about our ability to grow that business in 2024 just based on the awards that we’ve had here in the last few months, we think that’s important. We’ve taken a very conservative approach to how we think our customers will guide CapEx based on recent commentary. And again, any improvements to that should actually allow us to improve on the numbers that we’ve talked about today.

Steven Fisher: But just to clarify, so are you assuming the wireless business is actually up next year?

Jose Mas: We are not. We are not making that assumption. We’re assuming that it’s flat.

Steven Fisher: Flat, okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Jose Mas: Thank you, Steve.

Operator: We will now move to our next question from Justin Hauke from Baird. Please go ahead.

Justin Hauke: Hi good morning guys. A lot of my questions have been answered here. But I wanted to ask, I guess the risk profile of just cost overruns on some of the fixed price contracts at IEA, you guys, at least as of the last 10-Q, we don’t have the one from the quarter, but the revenue on unapproved change orders has kind of moved materially higher over the last year and a half. And just as we go into 4Q and kind of the annual close out the resolution on some of those unapproved change orders, you talked about a legacy industrial project. I mean just can you give us some context about what’s been driving that balance increasing?

Paul Dimarco: Yes. So we do – we should see a slight reduction when the Q3 numbers come out, but a lot of it is with the legacy industrial projects that we had challenges on in 2022 and the early part of this year. Some of them were resolved in the ordinary course in Q4 and some we work with the customers on we think our contractual obligations that they’ve made under the contracts. And we obviously have a very robust process for reporting those. We have a very strong track record of realizing those change orders, and we really don’t expect any different in the environment today.

Justin Hauke: Okay. And then just because it is a high visibility project, can you quantify the MVP revenue contribution that you’re assuming in 4Q? And then how much will be there in the first half of 2024? I know they’ve disclosed that the cost estimate for the project is higher, just kind of giving some context to help us understand how much that’s contributing?