Lufax Holding Ltd (LU): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Lufax Holding Ltd on Turtles Research’s Substack by IJW. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LU. Lufax Holding Ltd’s share was trading at $4.0600 as of September 29th. LU’s trailing and forward P/E were 3.19 and 3.79 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Lufax (LU) presents an intriguing opportunity given recent developments and market dynamics. The stock, currently trading around $3.55, has a market capitalization of only $2–3 billion and is priced at approximately 22% of tangible book value. Interest has been piqued by unusual trading activity in the U.S. options market, where several $100k-plus trades in $2–$4 calls across multiple expirations suggest potential insider knowledge or strategic positioning, possibly anticipating a move by majority shareholder Ping An, which owns roughly 75% of Lufax.

A buyout of the remaining 25% at a premium—similar to Ping An’s recent privatization of OneConnect—could nearly double the stock from current levels, making these options particularly attractive. The company’s operational backdrop is supportive as well: an extraordinary general meeting on September 30 aims to increase annual caps related to Ping An’s consumer financing business, consumer loan interest subsidies from the Chinese government, and CCP-backed regulatory reforms are all likely to boost demand and reduce competition for Lufax.

The company has also shifted to a more conservative loan-loss model, absorbing potential losses upfront, which temporarily depressed margins but should position earnings for growth in 2026, potentially exceeding $500 million versus analyst estimates around $450 million. Furthermore, Lufax maintains substantial net cash on its balance sheet—$1.5–$2.35 per share—enhancing downside protection. While the stock has been inactive on the Hong Kong exchange due to auditor resignation and delayed filings, these factors, combined with limited downside and meaningful upside potential, make Lufax an appealing trade with strong risk/reward dynamics.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) by Unconventional Value in March 2025, which highlighted AI-driven disruption in credit markets and strong growth potential. The stock has depreciated approximately by 4.93% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as Upstart’s AI improvements support long-term growth. IJW shares a similar view but emphasizes Lufax’s undervaluation, potential Ping An buyout, and Chinese regulatory tailwinds.

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Disclosure: None.