LiveWire Group, Inc. (NYSE:LVWR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Tristan Thomas Martin : Good morning. I just wanted to circle back to promos for a second. During the quarter, I think you’re running 399 with zero down, and then post the quarter you switch to 199 to zero down. What has the consumer response been to lower rates and is that kind of the level we should expect from Harley moving forward? Thank you.

Edel O’Sullivan: Thank you for the question, Tristan. So as we mentioned, we are – we have several different potential challenges to consumer behavior and different objectives strategically around their inventory, which is how we have designed our promotional activity. We have tried and experimented with a couple of different tools to make sure that we are addressing several of those channels, both at the top and the bottom of the funnel. And let me start by saying that many of these promotional efforts are also in many ways traffic drivers first and foremost. We want to make sure, again, in an environment work, the consumer is potentially not focused on a discretionary purchase of this size, that we are back in their consideration set.

So that is one very important component, even the actual reach or applicability of the promotion. We have found that the low APR has been well received by our dealers and by our consumers. Also at this time of year, you usually see consumers that are looking for, that may be a little bit higher credit worthiness and are looking for really a good offer and that’s where we’re targeting our promotions. But first and foremost, our efforts are really around the balance of driving traffic, driving awareness, making sure that we’re back in the consideration that just as much as it is about closing deals for the consumer at the level of the dealership.

Tristan Thomas Martin : Okay, thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Noah Zatzkin: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just wondering if you could provide some color or help quantify the impact of the production suspension on 3Q shipments and how you think about the retail impact during the quarter there. Do you expect resumption of shipments to be a retail tailwind in the fourth quarter?

Jochen Zeitz : Well, if you look, as we mentioned in our speech that shipments have resumed, but they actually came in later than we had hoped for in the third quarter. So some of our most desirable products came in later in the third quarter, and that certainly has had some impact. To quantify, the impact on retail is quite difficult, so I’ll refrain from that. But the interruption has certainly messed up our mix a little bit and the shipment of our most desirable units and that impact we’ve certainly seen play out. Now, how much you can, how much of that you can pick up in the fourth quarter remains to be seen, but that’s obviously what we’re trying to achieve.

Noah Zatzkin: Very helpful. Maybe just one more and I know you’re not guiding to 2024, but as it relates to HDFS, I guess, how are you thinking about kind of a baseline for expected credit losses next year given higher rates? Thanks.

Jonathan Root: Yes, you’re welcome. So, good question. We’re actually not talking about 2024 or 2024 guidance at this point. We want to make sure that we close out the year and have confidence in what we are communicating further out, so we’ll probably hold on that. I think the important point for us is as we look at what you’ve – what we’ve displayed, again within the presentation today and what we’re seeing in terms of realized retail credit losses, certainly those have accelerated. We think that we’re starting to comp a period that’s a little bit easier from a comp perspective than where we were in the first half of the year. So the kind of the trend that we’re on is in the right direction, but probably not the right severity.

So that will start to slow down a little bit as we move into the back quarter or the final quarter of the year. But again, as we look forward to 2024, we’re going to save that for a future call with you that’s a little bit more informed and a little bit more accurate.

Noah Zatzkin: Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of David MacGregor from Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

David MacGregor: Yes. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about LiveWire, and it seems as though you are still targeting that 600 bikes at the low end of the range, which would imply a pretty substantial inflection in shipments here in fourth quarter. I guess, how confident are you in that 600 unit sort of target. Can you talk about what percentage of these bikes may be pre-sold at this point? Have you adjusted your plan price point on the Del Mar to account for maybe some of the affordability issues that were discussed earlier in the call? And I think importantly, at what rate does the operating loss respond to the ramp in unit shipments?

Jochen Zeitz : Good morning, David. Thanks for the question. Our level of confidence is where it should be to reaffirm guidance. We have enough demand to fulfill the guidance in terms of number of units. We are back in production, ramping up right now as we speak. So we feel pretty confident that between demand that we have with pre-orders, along with the capacity available at York that we can fulfill that number. So that’s the first part of the question. The second, we stick to the pricing that was communicated earlier.

David MacGregor: Okay. And are you able to speak to, at what rate the operating loss responds to the ramp in unit shipments?

Jonathan Root: The operating loss is in line with the investments that were planned for the year. So at this stage, it’s exactly the rate that we are supposed to have.

David MacGregor: I guess I am just trying to get a sense of going forward with what that operating leverage, that volume leverage might look like in ‘24 and ‘25 as we ramp?

Jonathan Root: Well, I think it would give you the same response that I gave, which is we don’t comment on ’24, ‘25 on this call.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Rolle from D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.