Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript May 10, 2023

Operator: Good morning, and thank you for joining Lincoln Financial Group’s First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Now, I’d like to turn the conference over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Al Copersino. Please go ahead, sir.

Al Copersino: Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Lincoln Financial’s first quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I have an important reminder. Any comments made during the call regarding future expectations, including those regarding deposits, expenses, income from operations, share repurchases and liquidity and capital resources are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include those described in the cautionary statement disclosures in our earnings release issued yesterday as well as those detailed in our 2022 annual report on Form 10-K, most recent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and from time to time in our other filings with the SEC.

These forward-looking statements are made only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of them to reflect events or circumstances that occur after this date. We appreciate your participation today and invite you to visit Lincoln’s website, www.lincolnfinancial.com, where you can find our press release and statistical supplement, which include full reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures used on this call including adjusted income from operations or adjusted operating income and adjusted income from operations available to common stockholders to the most comparable GAAP measures. A slide presentation containing supplemental first quarter 2023 investment portfolio information is also posted on our website in the Investor Relations section.

Presenting on today’s call are Ellen Cooper, President and CEO; and Chris Neczypor, Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, we will move to the question-and-answer portion of the call. I would now like to turn the call over to Ellen.

Ellen Cooper: Thank you, Al, and good morning, everyone. During the first quarter, we continued to take the necessary steps and have made substantial progress to strengthen the balance sheet, improve our free cash flow and position the business for long-term sustainable growth. We have a differentiated business model, including a powerful distribution franchise, broad product offerings and a diversified, high-quality investment portfolio. These strengths have the foundation for successful execution of our enterprise priorities, and we will continue to focus on actions that deliver on our objectives. Our first quarter financial results were within the range we disclosed on last week’s call. Our earnings for the quarter reflect the 2023 headwinds we have discussed previously, such as higher expenses, lower prepayment income and the pressures highlighted in our Life Insurance business that we expect to begin to dissipate or be offset by larger positives in 2024 and beyond.

Chris will go through the details of the headwinds in Life and where we see opportunity for improvement in its financial performance over time. Before discussing our business unit highlights, I will spend some time discussing our progress in executing our strategy. We are continuing to make headway in improving our capital position and our long-term cash flow profile with 3 of our businesses delivering solid free cash flow for the company. And the fourth, our Life business which will be improved post the close of the recently announced reinsurance transaction. We estimate the RBC ratio at the end of the first quarter to be approximately 380% and following the close of the reinsurance transaction, we expect to be closer to our near-term target of 400%.

We also continue to expect to generate $300 million to $500 million of free cash flow this year before the impact of the reinsurance transaction and to execute on initiatives to further improve ongoing free cash flow in 2024 and beyond. One of the key initiatives underway is our focus on new business capital efficiency across retail and workplace solutions, where we are delivering a robust level of sales with a more capital-efficient product mix by leveraging our distribution leadership and broad diversified product portfolios. Other key initiatives to drive ongoing free cash flow include continuing to implement our Spark Initiative, enhancing the profitability of our group business, fully repositioning our VA hedge program, completing our recently announced reinsurance transaction, which is expected to reduce balance sheet risk, improve our capital position and lessen the drag on the Life Insurance distributable earnings’ profile and taking additional actions to improve the capital generation of our in-force book.

This quarter is a clear demonstration of the swift progress we are making, and I am pleased with our results as we continue to execute to improve our long-term free cash flow profile. As we look ahead, we have also highlighted our goal of reducing financial leverage and will provide a longer-term view of targeted capital levels later this year that is aligned with a prudent approach to capital return and maintains our financial flexibility, creating long-term sustainable value for shareholders. Turning to the business units and starting with our Annuities business. Sales of $3.2 billion were up 17% versus the prior year quarter. Within the Fixed Product category, sales rose sequentially for the fourth consecutive quarter and net inflows were again strong.

In Index Variable Annuities, sales were up 9% as we drive new and multi-ticket producer growth. In Life Insurance, sales were down 16% as our shift towards a more capital-efficient product mix takes hold. Indexed Universal Life sales were up 34% marking a record first quarter for IUL sales, while as expected, sales of term products declined. Furthermore, we continue to expand our products into new geographies and channels, such as the recent launch of MoneyGuard Market Advantage in the State of California. Executive Benefit sales can be lumpy and were down in the quarter. In our 2 retail businesses, Annuities and Life Insurance, we are pleased with our overall level of sales and diversified product mix which are meeting our capital efficiency targets and exceeding our new business return targets.

We expect the new business from our retail businesses, both Annuities and Life to be important drivers of future cash generation and profitable growth. In our 2 Workplace Solutions businesses, Group Protection and Retirement Plan Services where we serve more than 50,000 employers and close to 14 million employees, our differentiated product offerings and service capabilities have generated high customer satisfaction scores and strong retention. We continue to invest in our technology, claims organization and distribution franchise to position ourselves for continued growth and long-term success. These investments are supporting the year-over-year expansion in our group margin, and we expect our Workplace Solutions businesses to be key cash flow and earnings growth engines for the company going forward.

In Group Protection, overall sales were up 22% with strength across all size segments and more than 50% growth in employee paid sales where we are seeing significant momentum in supplemental health products. Premiums were up 7% from higher sales, ongoing price increases and strong persistency. And finally, in Retirement Plan Services, net flows were strong at $535 million, helped by our digitally enabled high-touch customer experience that has led to excellent retention. First year sales were down following a strong prior year quarter in the large-case market where sales can be lumpy. First year sales in the small-case market, a key focus area were up 78%, speaking to our product innovation and distribution strength. We expect RPS first year sales to be higher over the balance of the year.

We are very happy with the performance of our Workplace Solutions businesses as sales continue to meet or exceed capital efficiency and new business return targets. We continue to execute and to enhance our customer-focused strategies, and we expect that will be into long-term sustainable growth. Turning to our investment portfolio. Our high quality and broadly diversified investment portfolio is tightly aligned with our liabilities’ profile and positioned to perform well under multiple economic scenarios. Our real estate and banking exposures are well positioned and we have a long track record of excellent commercial mortgage loan underwriting discipline and a rigorous credit-monitoring process. Our team regularly stress test the portfolio by asset class and sector name by name and we remain highly confident in our ability to navigate various economic environments.

In closing, we are pleased with our swift progress as we execute against our priorities and deliver on our commitments. We are strengthening our balance sheet, our capital generation is improving, we are generating capital-efficient sales with returns at or above targeted levels and our investment portfolio is positioned well, all of which gives me great confidence as we move forward. I will now turn the call over to Chris to take you through the financials into more detail.

Chris Neczypor: Thank you, Ellen, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate everyone dialing in and listening to our call. I’m going to discuss 3 things this morning. First, we’ll go through the financial results for the quarter, then I’ll touch on capital and then we’ll finish up with details around our investment portfolio. So let’s start with the financial results. Last night, we reported first quarter adjusted operating income available to common stockholders of $260 million or $1.52 per diluted share. There are 2 items to call out as it relates to these results. The first is that alternative investments were $19 million below target or $0.11 per share. Second, our Annuities business had a favorable tax item of $11 million or $0.06 per share.

Additionally, with this being the first quarter under the new accounting framework of LDTI, we reported a net loss available to common shareholders of $909 million or $5.37 per diluted share. The main difference between the net and adjusted operating income is the change in the market risk benefits and hedge instrument valuations. Offsetting this loss was a favorable MRB related item that flows through AOCI. As we’ve discussed, with the adoption of LDTI, we expect GAAP net income volatility to increase partly due to noneconomic drivers. Now turning to the segment results. Let’s start with the highlight, which was Group Protection. This quarter, Group Protection reported $71 million in operating income compared to a loss of $46 million in the prior year quarter.

This significant improvement was primarily due to improved disability results driven by strategic investments in our business. In addition, as the pandemic turns to endemic, similar to what you’ve heard from peers, the impact on our earnings has declined. The loss ratio for Group Life was 80.4%, an improvement of 11 points from a year ago as COVID claims have continued to decline. The disability loss ratio was 71.4%, an improvement of over 17 points from a year ago, driven by lower disability claims and strong recoveries as we provided solid return-to-work outcomes for our claimants. The expense ratio is up 110 basis points from a year ago, which, as I noted earlier, is primarily the result of strategic investments in our business and is translating to increased overall profitability.

These strategic investments will continue to generate value in the marketplace and improve the customer experience for both employers and claimants. The result of these outcomes was a 5.6% operating margin for the quarter, up from a negative 3.9% margin a year ago. Importantly, while these results are clear signs of progress, we continue to see upside over the next couple of years and a path to reaching and sustaining our 7% margin target. Profitable growth in the Group business will continue to be critical as we execute against our strategic objectives, specifically as we look to grow and diversify Lincoln’s long-term earnings’ profile and to help decrease our capital sensitivity to market volatility. Now let’s turn to Annuities. Annuities delivered another solid quarter with reported operating income of $274 million compared to $317 million in the prior year quarter.

The decrease was due primarily to lower account values driven by the decline in the capital markets in 2022. Lower prepayment income and higher expenses also were headwinds. Lastly, our repositioned hedge program is working as intended, protecting capital and maximizing the present value of distributable earnings. And while it’s early in the program’s tenure, we continue to see excess capital in LINBAR as a result. Looking ahead, we see continued upside to our Annuities business. Our diverse product portfolio gives us opportunity to grow with capital efficiency in various market environments. Our hedge program is now explicitly prioritizing capital and the earnings power from our high-quality in-force blocks continue to generate capital and significant cash flow for the company.

Let’s now turn to Retirement Plan Services. Retirement reported operating income of $43 million compared to $58 million in the prior year quarter. The decline was largely due to lower prepayment income, the impact of lower equity markets on fee income and higher expenses. Somewhat offsetting these headwinds were higher base spreads, which expanded by 25 basis points relative to a year ago. We expect to see spread expansion for the full year, though given the volatile rate environment, spread changes won’t be linear, and we expect full year expansion in the low single digits. Stepping back, despite lower prepayment income and higher expenses, which we expect to continue through 2023, the Retirement business continues to deliver solid underlying results, and importantly, positive net flows, which should continue to help grow the business over the long term.

Lastly, let’s discuss Life Insurance. Life reported an operating loss of $13 million compared to operating income of $23 million in the prior year quarter. This was a business that pre-COVID generated $500 million to $600 million of earnings a year. And so I think it’s worth walking through 2 things. First, what are the drivers to the decline? And then second, how do we think about which of these headwinds will get better over the next few years? So stepping back, the major headwinds to this business that have emerged over the last few years to GAAP earnings are as follows: first, 2021’s reinsurance transaction involving executive benefits and universal life blocks reduced annual earnings by $65 million; second, last year’s assumption reset had a $180 million annual run rate impact to earnings; third, prepaid income was historically $30 million a year, which in this rate environment has mostly become de minimis; fourth, reinsurance costs, which we’ve pointed to over the past few quarters have been a $40 million to $45 million incremental headwind.

And then similar to the other business units, we’ve seen expenses increase over the last few years, some of which is nonrecurring, but some is a reflection of the business environment that we’re in, and we are managing through that. So in total, these 5 things equate to roughly half the decline from the pre-COVID run rate. Most of the other half is largely due to 3 items, each of which should get better over the next few years. First, we target a 10% annual return in our Alt portfolio over time. And this quarter, we returned just under 7% annualized. Also a large contributor to the Life segment, given the long-duration nature of the reserves, and so this can be a meaningful swing quarter-to-quarter. Second, COVID has had a negative impact on Life earnings over the trailing 4 quarters of approximately $90 million.

We’re seeing some declining mortality headwinds as the pandemic turns to endemic, but elevated mortality relative to pre-COVID time periods is still a headwind for now. And third, as we’ve discussed, LDTI has a negative impact on Life GAAP earnings. Amortization of deferred revenue is currently occurring more slowly under LDTI, which is the main driver of the expected $100 million to $120 million negative impact on full year 2023 Life earnings. This is a timing issue. And in the future, deferred revenue amortization will continue to grow each year going forward, and so this will become less of a headwind. Lastly, the transaction we announced last week, while accretive to free cash flow is expected to be dilutive to Life GAAP earnings by roughly $120 million to $140 million annually.

And so while most of these headwinds will persist, a portion will begin to normalize next year. Importantly, we feel confident about the business we are putting on the books today and our ability to generate profitable growth in this segment over time. Let’s now turn to capital. We ended the quarter with an estimated RBC ratio at approximately 380%. The sequential increase in RBC comes despite turmoil in the credit markets and typical first quarter seasonality and is the result of continued management actions to increase capital efficiency. We remain on track to deliver $300 million to $500 million of free cash flow this year, assuming a normal market environment and before the impact of the block reinsurance transaction we discussed last week.

As a reminder, the deal is expected to increase RBC by about 15 points at close and grow ongoing free cash flow by over $100 million a year. Moving to investments. Despite credit market turbulence, we reported solid credit results. As you’ll see in the supplement that we provided, our portfolio is currently 97% investment grade, and we experienced a seventh consecutive quarter of positive net rating migrations. Our conservative positioning reflects disciplined portfolio construction, regular stress testing and proactive credit risk management. Now turning to our banking and commercial real estate exposure. Our total bank holdings represent just 5% of invested assets and are diversified across global systemically important banks, trust and custody banks and high-quality regional banks.

Let’s now talk about commercial mortgage loans. And here, I would make 3 points. First, we have an extremely high-quality CML portfolio, representing 12% of the total invested assets. Our CML strategy is focused on 100% fixed rate senior loans to stabilized properties with low loan-to-value and high debt service coverage ratios. We maintained disciplined underwriting and rigorous ongoing monitoring processes with virtually no credit losses since 2019 and no current loan modifications. Our CML portfolio is currently comprised 80% of CM1 mortgages, approximately 20% of CM2 mortgages and only 0.4% of CM3 or below mortgages. The average loan-to-value was 46% and the debt service coverage ratio was 2.4x, and we have no direct real estate equity or transitional loan exposure.

Second, let’s talk a bit about office exposure. Office for us represents 21% of the CML portfolio, and that number is down 400 basis points from 3 years ago. Since 2020, we have proactively shifted our portfolio away from office exposure, and that’s both from a mix perspective and on an absolute basis. Our office portfolio is also conservatively positioned with similar metrics as the broader CML portfolio I mentioned a moment ago. However, what is even more important is our near-term maturities. In 2023, we have only $34 million of remaining maturities from office mortgages and only $164 million in 2024 or 5% of our total office portfolio and 1% of our total commercial loan portfolio. Additionally, it’s worth noting that loans with near-term maturities are performing extremely well, with nearly half of those loans being on high-demand medical office buildings.

The third and last point I want to make about office and other commercial mortgage loans, in particular, is that it’s important to understand where we participate in the market. While we have a broadly diversified footprint and the capability to lend across all markets, our emphasis historically has been in the middle market. So from a size perspective, this resulted in our average office loan being around $16 million. And from a mix perspective, we will tend to have a highly diversified portfolio with lower-than-average office exposure and a greater allocation to apartments or industrial properties within our CML portfolio. So to summarize the 3 key takeaways on CMLs. First, we have a high-quality portfolio with negligible exposure to CM3 or below.

Second, we have proactively reduced our office exposure by 400 basis points and have very limited near-term maturities. And third, our strategy is focused primarily on middle market lending, resulting in a higher percentage of apartment and industrial properties. Lastly, on our investment portfolio more generally and to reiterate a point I made on our call last week, the asset listings in our statutory filings include assets both for Lincoln as well as those in our funds withheld reinsurance agreements where we do not have the economic exposure, and it’s worth highlighting this statement is true for the CML portfolio as well. In closing, let me reiterate 3 points. First, from an earnings perspective, we are encouraged by the quarter that we know we have more work to do with addressing the headwinds in our Life business.

Second, we continue to make progress on improving our capital position and our long-term free cash flow profile, with the results this quarter showing signs of progress and last week’s transaction announcement being another step forward. And third, our investment portfolio is very high quality, and our exposure to recent areas of market concern are more than manageable. We appreciate everyone taking the time to listen today, and now we look forward to taking your questions. With that, let me turn the call back to Al.

Al Copersino: Thank you, Ellen and Chris. We will now begin the question-and-answer portion of the call. As a reminder, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up and then requeue if you have additional questions. With that, let me turn the call over to the operator to begin Q&A.

Q&A Session

Operator: [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from Erik Bass with Autonomous Research.

Operator: Next, we’ll go to Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI.

Operator: Next, we’ll go to Michael Ward with Citigroup.

Operator: Next, we’ll go to Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan Chase.

Operator: Next, we’ll go to John Barnidge with Piper Sandler.

Operator: Next, we’ll go to Ryan Krueger with KBW.

Operator: And that concludes today’s question-and-answer session. And it’s all the time we have for today. I’ll now turn the call back over to Al Copersino for any additional or closing remarks.

Al Copersino: Thank you all for joining us this morning. We’re happy to take any follow-up questions you have, you can e-mail us at investorrelations@lfg.com. Thank you, and have a good day.

Operator: And that does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.