Lemonade, Inc. (NYSE:LMND) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Shai Wininger: Not so much about competitors moving in and out, but we follow similar forces. Sales of certain products in certain markets have changed dramatically over recent years. I think it was Tommy, who asked earlier about our concentration of clients in California, and you will see that we have made concerted efforts in product and that, by the way is something that we inherited from Metromile. We have made concerted efforts to re-balance some of our products in that sense, particularly when it comes to cat exposure. So in recent years, our sales of home insurance in general and home insurance cat exposed areas has dropped off precipitously. And we keep looking at the areas of greatest exposure and try to balance the book accordingly.

So, we have taken and continue to take measures to avoid the worst of those. The fact that our competitors are pulling out of those markets doesn’t make them attractive to us. We’re really focused on selling in places that we feel we have price adequacy and secondly a preference for low volatility, particularly given the high cost of reinsurance at the moment.

Jason Helstein: Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Andrew Anderson of Jefferies. Andrew, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Andrew Anderson: Hi, good morning. I think you had kind of touched on the ex-CAT gross loss ratio earlier, but maybe if we go back to it 73% in the quarter and kind of consistent with first quarter and second quarter results. I’m just thinking, there’s been a lot of rate taken quick kind of get some puts and takes perhaps by line on why we haven’t been seeing a little bit of sequential improvement. Maybe, some seasonality, or just the lagging timing of earned rate?

Tim Bixby: Yes, I think if you break down the loss ratio, you certainly see a couple of consistency themes. We don’t see improvement every single quarter as we move forward. And so we saw some ups and downs in Q3. The net impact was a fair bit better obviously because of the CAT impact, which is primarily a home dynamic. In terms of specifics we saw continued improvement in CAT quarter-to-quarter, which obviously is not CAT exposed and we saw a nice improvement in car even, even obviously before this most recent rate increase from Q2 to Q3. Renters nudged up very slightly and home was up somewhat and so this is a pretty common theme, we shared the product write-downs a couple of times over the past year. And you’ll see some short-term fluctuations in volatility quarter-to-quarter, and then you’ll see the long-term trend reflecting that those rates earning in, and I’d refer folks back to the letter, where we had some specifics on the dollar impact of rates earning in.

So a fair amount somewhere in to date, a good amount of progress and with the rates just to prevent California, obviously that number is going to continue to be a very solid driver of both growth and loss ratio improvement going forward.

Andrew Anderson: Okay. And I think you had mentioned 10 points of gross CAT losses. Do you have net CAT losses handy, as well as the 3.8 points of favorable PYD was that on a net basis as well.

Tim Bixby: So you’ll typically see our gross and net impacts to be very close not identical. But very consistently similar impacts quarter-to-quarter and that’s been true for some time. In terms of the prior period development that was driven. There’s two numbers there. One is the in-quarter prior period development impact is about 3.8% favorable. That number moves around quarter-to-quarter, but that was primarily a CAT reserve benefit in the quarter. And then there’s a prior year number that’s disclosed in the year, those are two different numbers. The drivers are similar. The numbers are different because prior years, prior year and prior period is all, all prior periods combined. But the impact was the same both favorable, primarily driven by CAT.

Andrew Anderson: So the prior period was 3.8 points of favorable, the PYD was also 3.8 points

Tim Bixby: No, the prior year is a $1 number and that would be a smaller dollar number. And the current, the current quarter 3.8% – is 3.8% of gross earned premium in the current quarter. So that dollar impact in the current quarter would be about, if you do the math about $6 million in the prior year number – prior year numbers about $3 million. So two different numbers, and I would caution you to not – to be careful when you combine those because they are two different analysis, two different numbers and can lead to some confusing conclusions but happy to follow-up after the call if more detail is helpful.

Andrew Anderson: Great, thank you.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] At this stage we have no further questions. And therefore, this concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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