The best thing about the stock market is that you can make money in either direction. Historically, stock indexes have tended to trend up over the long term. But when you look at individual stocks, you’ll find plenty that lose money over the long haul. According to hedge fund institution Blackstar Funds, even with dividends included, between 1983 and 2006, 64% of stocks underperformed the Russell 3000, a broad-scope market index.
A large influx of short-sellers shouldn’t be a condemning factor to any company, but it could be a red flag from traders that something may not be as cut-and-dried as it appears. Let’s look at three companies that have seen a rapid increase in the number of shares sold short and see whether traders are blowing smoke or if their worry has some merit.
|Company||Short Increase April 15 to April 30||Short Shares as a % of Float|
Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA)
Corrections Corp Of America (NYSE:CXW)
Select Medical Holdings Corporation (NYSE:SEM)
Are short-sellers “parking” their money in a bad place?
Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA), a manufacturer of car seats as well as other electrical components for autos, has certainly drawn its fair share of naysayers over the past couple of weeks. Delayed tax refunds at home and weakness in European markets cued many investors into thinking Lear could be headed for a slowdown. However, Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA)’s first-quarter results demonstrated otherwise.
In the quarter, net income did fall 19% because of weak demand in Europe and higher costs in South America, but a big rise in Chinese demand led to the company’s 14th straight quarter of sequential margin expansion, and a top- and bottom-line beat of Wall Street’s expectations. Furthermore, Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) set an $800 million share repurchase program and boosted its dividend by 21% to $0.17 per quarter. I highly doubt we’d see such aggressive value-building tactics had Lear felt a contraction was around the corner.
Although the results were strong (all things considered), I do think that Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) shareholders should temper their expectations moving forward. Even with the company valued at just nine times forward earnings, U.S. auto sales growth this year could be the slowest we’ve seen since the recession. Results from Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) in April may have spoofed that notion as F-Series trucks saw a 24% increase in units sold while car and light truck volume rose by 18%. But it’s hard to argue against the overwhelmingly negative effects we’ve witnessed so far from higher payroll taxes and delayed tax refunds throughout the retail sector.
Who said crime doesn’t pay?
Necessity businesses are often great investments because there’s usually safety in their cash flow. Water and electric utilities, as well as trash collection, are examples of businesses that take care of life’s essentials. I’d propose that we should also add jailing a growing population of prisoners as yet another of life’s necessities.
Corrections Corp Of America (NYSE:CXW), also known as CCA, and The Geo Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) are the two largest contracted prison companies. If there’s any doubt that these companies are as good as gold, one need only look at CCA’s first-quarter report from last week, which saw normalized funds from operations rise by a whopping 35% to $0.70 per share. CCA also boosted its full-year EPS from a range of $2.05-$2.15 to $2.08-$2.16.
CCA and The Geo Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) are both perfect examples of the law of numbers. The U.S. imprisons a larger percentage of its population than any other country, creating a near endless supply of prisoners and the need for guards and marshals. This is a cash-flow cow at its finest. What makes CCA and GEO Group even more unique is that, as of this year, both are altering their status to become REITs. This means that shareholders moving forward will receive at least 90% of profits in the form of a dividend in return for a more favorable tax rate for the companies. CCA and The Geo Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) are already yielding in excess of 5%, so short-sellers really may want to think twice about betting against either of them.