Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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So I wouldn’t say that, that was a — there was a cost headwind there. I would say that, that sequential improvement was a very positive sign for us of where things are. And the fact that we are seeing shipments turn positive on a year-over-year basis and to be able to see revenue, excluding fuel per hundredweight up in the double-digits, continue that’s a — those are very positive signs for us.

Jack Atkins: Thank you.

David Jackson: Thanks, Jack.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Todd [Sic] [Tom] Wadewitz from UBS. Your line is open.

Tom Wadewitz: Yeah. Hey Dave, Adam, it’s Tom Wadewitz here. I wanted to ask you a little bit about kind of cycle view. Dave, you offered some thoughts of kind of constructive and bid season. Do you need to see spot rates move up first in order to really see that improvement in contract? It continues to be a widespread between contract and spot and I think the brokers take advantage of that and compete against you guys. So I’m just wondering, is the kind of optimism on contract rates next year really contingent on seeing some momentum in spot rates ahead of that? And I don’t know if you have a thought on just capacity exiting, and when you get enough of that to take place to tighten the market as well. So, thank you.

David Jackson: Yes. I would just — I’ll jump in, and then Adam can finish this off. I think that historically, through these cycles, it’s worked where that spot rate starts to climb. And if you were to graph out spot rates and contract rates, you find that intersection. And when they intersect, that is the tale-tale sign that spot rates are just getting going and that is — the curve of the contractual rate is now about to bend and turn to positive again. And so, we have not seen that. We’ve really seen spot rates just kind of move sideways, as time just gone on. One disadvantage we have from cycle to cycle is the dataset that we look at is constantly evolving. And it seems like increasingly the dataset that we look at is a magnifying glass into just broker and the smallest of carriers.

That isn’t necessarily where the majority of freight moves or how it moves. But nonetheless, we’ve got that corner of the market with a telescope right now, it feels like. So, it’s hard to always compare that to previous years. It’s hard to think that we wouldn’t see that kind of — generally speaking, that kind of mechanic happen again, where spot rates increase to a point where they intersect contract, and then now you know you’re off to a different part of the cycle. The piece about that is hard to predict is that, it always — it happens so fast and it happens unexpectedly. And there is always a catalyst or a multitude of catalysts to bring it to bear, whether it’d be weather, whether it’d be fuel prices. It feels like the extreme aggressiveness that we have seen out of non-asset-based players.

It has reached a level to where it’s not only unsustainable but when you add how expensive financing is and what might subsidize and allow that to happen, it becomes — it blows up. And now all of a sudden, you had a lot of small carriers who were dependent on some kind of a model like that, that now are maybe in a little bit of trouble. So I think we’re starting to see some of this. I mean, we are hearing of asset-based carriers that are closing the doors. Here, just — I mean, just this month, we continued to hear. I think there was another one just heard about today to say nothing for a non-asset-based player that seems to be stopping operations or something. So there — things are breaking right now. I don’t know if that is enough to be this catalyst, where you start to see this happen, but inevitably, it is almost impossible to predict.

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