Kinetik Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:KNTK) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jamie Welch: Sure. So Neel, yes, we have three outlets today, Lone Star, Grand Prix, and Shin Oak. The way that it works is that Lone Star has plant dedications, so things that literally the volume that runs through those plants go to Lone Star. It is a legacy contract, very, very similar to many other contracts that were done in the 2015, 2016 timeframe. And then you obviously have Shin Oak, which was much more specific to Diamond Cryer because that is obviously the one outlet given Apache was expected to be the an or one of the anchor customers of that pipeline when originally conceived. And then you have Grand Prix. So, you know, it is not a case of picking and choosing. We basically follow, you know, what we have to, in the context of the contracts that we have and following obviously the intent and the letter of those contracts as far as that is the way the volumes flow.

As far as going forward and the flexibility in a few years we have the Lone Star arrangements rolling off. We have obviously, we have flexibilities. We think about what we do next as far as a new plant and where that is located and what that may do. So look, I think we just manage it in the context of the bundle of contracts and the rights and responsibilities that we have.

Neel Mitra: Okay. Great. And then second question on the GCX pipe, not specifically on the transaction, but fact that we have next decade needing gas in the 2027 time frame. Can you just talk about how the Corpus Christi market has changed. And whether you see that as a short market, even with the expansion. Just wanted to see how you view that takeaway solution and where that market is going?

Trevor Howard: Thanks for the question, Neil. This is Trevor. So the market today down in Corpus Christi area is about 6 to 6.5 Bcf a day. And with the NGL capacity or expansion announcements, Shin Oak and then also with Rio Brand LNG and continued pipeline export growth. We see that market going from about 6.5 to 10 Bcf a day. You do have some relief from Eagle Ford lines that are coming into the area. And then we also do have the Whistler expansion that has come online last quarter. But you are talking anywhere between 1B to 2Bs of growth from those proposed projects and completed expansions, for over 4Bcf a day plus of growth. This assumes no further expansions at, – complex. And then exclude the Phase 2. So we do see that market being structurally short gas.

And then there is a more interesting dynamic down the road as, that you see continued expansions along the Texas, Louisiana state line. And there is more market share grabbing for the Houston Ship Channel in Katy markets that will further isolate to South Taxes market. So we do see that same premium market long-term that does warrant further investment. And then when you think about the supply push coming out of the Permian, match with the demand pulled out and what they will say, we see that being the preferred corridor for continued pipeline expansions, either on the Brownfield side or on the Greenfield side.

Operator: We will now take our next question from Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan. Jeremy, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Tonet: Good morning. Just want to, start off if I could. And I realize I’m parsing questions have already been asked. But, as we look at the EBITDA trajectory going forward here, a lot of focus has been on 2023 and appreciate that the 2024 guides not coming out till February. But is it at this point, you just there is this less visibility into the trajectory in 2024 and how those volumes might materialize and growth might materialize, in your kind of a waiting producer budgets, or do you see it kind of more flatter in nature? Just trying to get any color you are able to share as far as what you are able to see in 2024 volumes at this point.

Jamie Welch: Thanks Jeremy for the question. I think, look, the long and the short is, we get updated turn inline activity from pretty much every producer that we have. The frequency can be as frequent as every month. Sometimes it is every quarter, sometimes it is twice a year. It really depends. It comes in all different shapes and sizes. As far as what we see going out you typically, you know, plans can change and obviously these plans sometimes they oftentimes require, you know, board approval, part of a capital budget. We want to have these things set in stone before we take them as being gospel and decide that we therefore if this, then we need to do that. And so we just think from a prudency matter, it is better that we give you best available information.

We give you absolute clarity. Once we have absolute clarity, we know what our PDP stack looks like. We know what is going to turn in line in the intervening period between today, you know, November 9th and February 14th or 15th, right. Whenever we report. So we are going to have a pretty good line of sight on that. And then obviously it is going to be for the balance. Things oftentimes change and I think we have learned probably the hard lesson early on that it is better to be safe than sorry, and to make decisions based on all available information where you have got fully capital approved budgets by company boards. So as far as the trajectory is concerned, just what we see, we see so, you know, we continue to see pretty decent growth in our base sort of Lea county business.