KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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If you look at the amount of M&A that was completed this year in the 100 billion area, it’s down about 50%. And over time, obviously, that comes back. So in the near term, I think we’ll be up I don’t know to what degree. In the intermediate term as you look at 2024 when there’s clarity on where these rates settle in and some of these geopolitical concerns, I think there’s going to be a lot of activity.

Peter Winter: Got it. And then, Chris, if I could ask about the dividend? You have 70% plus payout ratio. Can you just talk about your commitment to maintaining that dividend? And is there any risk that you could be forced to cut the dividend?

Chris Gorman: I’d be happy to address that. Let me start by just saying my views on our dividend are unchanged. As we’ve managed this business, we manage the business for the long term. Similarly, our Board tends to take the same approach on everything, including the dividend. And so when we gather in November, we’ll review the dividend as we always do. In the context of a range of scenarios, you were just talking about geopolitical scenarios, et cetera, the macro conditions, but importantly, we’re going to take into consideration as we always do the normalized earnings power of our company, and our capital priorities are unchanged. We want to support our relationships as our clients and prospects and secondly, the dividend.

The other factors that I think are really important. First and foremost is credit quality, because there’s nothing that denigrates capital more than credit losses. I feel really good about our credit quality. We’ll also obviously be looking at the burned out of AOCI. That obviously is tied in. And then our ability to organically build capital. We’ve already talked about that a little bit through a reduction of RWAs and other actions we took. We’re able to grow our capital, our CET1 by 50 basis points this quarter. So that’s kind of how I think about it. But I’ll end where I start is that my views on the dividend haven’t changed.

Operator: And the next question will come from Ken Usdin from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Ken Usdin: Hi. Thanks. Good morning, Clark, I was wondering if you could kind of walk through some of the hedging strategy changes to Slide 22, a lot of new executions and terminations this quarter. I guess to start just can you help us understand like the net impact of these new moves in terms of like, does that help or hurt fourth quarter NII just to kind of put it into perspective?

Clark Khayat: Sure. So just to be clear, on that page, Ken, you’ll see an incremental 6.7 billion of pay-fixed swaps. Those were put on to provide some AOCI protection to higher rates. And then the termination of the 7.5 billion of 2024 pay-fixed swaps that we’ve been obviously talking about now for a couple of quarters. Also done really to guard against higher rates or the prospect of higher rates or as we said kind of rates that remain higher than the forward curve, which is relatively flat down through ’24, but has some cuts in the back end. So anything that’s sort of there or higher we’ll get some protection from both of those positions. I would think about in terms of reducing our kind of NII at risk to higher rates kind of by half to a staged 200 basis point rise, so kind of an extreme scenario, but we’re kind of reducing that liability sensitivity there just to protect both capital and earnings.

Ken Usdin: Okay. So I guess I’m just trying to figure out with all of that, your outlook for stable NII fourth over third, we’ve got the RWA reductions kind of working against that. And then I guess there’s — and then we have this slide you gave us on maturities. Are these new adds also incremental in the fourth and helping your fourth quarter forecast?

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