Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ:KDP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

But there’s nothing structural going on right now. And you can imagine, we spent a lot of time digging into the fundamental consumer drivers of coffee. The tailwinds are incredibly strong. the movement towards improving growth looks to be right in front of us here. But we’re being honest in saying that the total at-home coffee category has been more gradual than we originally expected, although we don’t — like I said, we don’t see anything structural. With regard to the untracked channels, why is that stronger? It’s really driven by club and e-commerce. E-commerce, which was growing prior to the pandemic, accelerated significantly during the pandemic, and it really has shown no signs of pulling back from that. And we talked before about the importance of e-commerce in our total business, but you can imagine when you look at individual segments, that single-serve coffee is really an ideal segment for e-commerce.

It’s lightweight, high value, long shelf life, not fragile to ship. So, you can really have a quite a good business on e-commerce. In addition to that, remember, we’ve been increasing our own subscription business and services to the consumer. And as we put more smart brewers out there, and allows for smart consumption-based reordering, I think that e-commerce will continue to grow. And I think club is an overall consumer shift towards that channel. It represents a good value. I also think that some of the changing away from home coffee trends, meaning office coffee trends have also benefit the club channel as well as people in small and midsized offices are picking up their supplies there as well as in e-commerce. And then with regard to 2024, I mean, we’ve given you our macro outlook.

We’re not going to break it down by individual segments. The one thing I would say that I believe is important is this gradual or more gradual rebound in coffee is something that we’ve been able to factor in our thought process as we think about our total company algorithm. And obviously, it’s something that we’ve digested and built it into our expectations.

Operator: Our next question will come from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.

Bryan Spillane: Maybe Bob, maybe to just pick up on that last point, and maybe a little bit higher level, just thinking about the consumer. As we’ve gone through this earnings season, it’s — there just seems like economizing behavior in a lot of different forms has kind of Bob more as we’ve moved through the back half of this year and Hershey talked a little bit about it this morning as well. And so, can you give perspective on two things. One, just how you’re thinking or how KDP is thinking about the consumer next year, stronger, weaker, and how maybe you’re adjusting your plans across all businesses for that? And then the second, just because it’s been so topical, just kind of how you — how KDP is digesting all of the sort of information about GLP-1? And is that something you’re beginning to factor into your longer-term plans?

Robert Gamgort : Yes. Thank you, Brian. Thanks for those questions. Our — we plan our business on a range of outcomes. We’ve said that before. We’ve been very watchful of the consumer and concerned about trade-down behaviors as a result of financial pressures. As we said, the consumer today remains incredibly resilient but we’re thoughtful about how that might shift into the future. We look across our entire portfolio, we have the ability to shift across formats, mix, channels, price pack architecture on both the refreshment beverage side and the cold beverage side — I mean, on the coffee side, to be able to react to any of those changes. But as of right now, we haven’t really seen that. There is a potential cascade that happens where you could talk about within traditional retail where consumer looks to lower-priced items and shops in more value-oriented channels.