Karat Packaging Inc. (NASDAQ:KRT) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Hoffman: Okay, all right. And then when you think about — I know you’re not giving guidance yet, but I just want to figure out what I’m taking out of ’23 into ’24, what I have to sort of consider? Like, so there’s been this pricing mix shift based on changes in raw material inventory, freights all through the latter part of this year and the early part next — latter part of last year into this year. What’s my rollover effect of that? How do I think about rolling over the pressures that have been in California versus the opportunity for either new customer wins or expansion of wallet of existing based on things like adding Houston or Chicago or the capacity expansion in Washington State? Can you help us with how to think about the top line in ’24?

Alan Yu: Yes, we do feel that — we have several new regional chains, that’s where we’re focusing on in terms of Midwest and East Coast, as well as supermarket chains for 2024. And I believe, Jian, did we — I would say that our 2024, we are looking increasing revenue-wise in terms of with these pipeline — converting this pipeline, also new distributors, because we’re adding — last quarter, I believe we added around 30 new distributors in chain account in the last quarter. And now we’re seeing that perhaps 35 or more distributors in the fourth quarter, and moving forward in 2024, approximately. So, we do see an upside in terms of increasing revenue. I believe that our — or we would be — did we guide our revenue on 2024, Jian?

Jian Guo: We haven’t. We typically will provide the 2024 revenue guidance in our fourth quarter 2023 call. But to Alan’s point, we do see some great, Michael, to answer your question, growth opportunities in terms of that top line in 2024. So, I know Alan already touched on we are seeing roughly an increase of 10 midsized distributors in the distributor channel, which is our biggest channel, as you are aware, each month. And then we are getting very close on some of the pipelines in our new business as well as expanded business in our chain channel as well. So, we’ll be providing the update on our 2024 revenue guidance next quarter.

Michael Hoffman: Yes, fair enough. And I’m truly not trying to get guidance as much as I just — we all have to build a model, and I’ve got to put a number out there. I want to make sure I’m in the right neighborhood, as opposed to something silly. So, what I think I’m hearing is that you’ve got enough new business opportunities between the distributors, new business growth in chains, that there’s a low single-digit-ish organic growth overcomes any things like weakness in California rolling over. And then you’ve enjoyed — is that the right way to think about, sort of low mid-single digits, without getting it into a hard range?

Alan Yu: Well, Michael, you missed one thing. It’s not just new accounts. And also, we mentioned that we’re going to be adding new products. There are several items that we’ll be adding that will increase our revenue organically for the next, yes, 2024.

Michael Hoffman: Right. But if we’re being conservative, sort of mid low single digits is a good place to start without getting too aggressive?

Alan Yu: That is conservative, yes.

Michael Hoffman: Okay. And then you had a very good gross margin here. You took the gross margin outlook up meaningful, from original 32% to 36%-38%. But I presume we settle back a little bit, then you settle back to a higher low than history, so more like a 34%-36%, is that the right way to think about gross margins in ’24?

Alan Yu: If we’re going to guide — we can’t guide right now, but we’re hoping that our gross margin stay around 35% to 37%, that is correct. That is our goal.

Michael Hoffman: Okay, all right. All right, and then you clearly have demonstrated part of our cap allocation is the dividend, so this has been a meaningful increase in it. How should we think about dividend growth from this point? You’ve stepped this up quite nicely, about $0.80 a year. But how do I think about how to model dividend growth on a go-forward basis?