We came across a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) on Substack by Antoni Nabzdyk. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on KSPI. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI)’s share was trading at $90.86 as of May 7th. KSPI’s trailing P/E was 8.69 according to Yahoo Finance.
A businesswoman using her mobile device to shop on a ecommerce platform.
Kaspi.kz (KSPI) is one of the most fascinating and underappreciated fintech stories in the global market today, offering a compelling case as a dominant super app in Kazakhstan. With an ecosystem that includes marketplace commerce, digital payments, lending, deposits, travel bookings, postomat delivery, and even access to government services—all within a single mobile app—Kaspi has embedded itself deeply into the daily lives of its users. Its mobile-first strategy, eschewing desktop development entirely, enables it to remain agile and rapidly deploy updates, leveraging end-to-end automation and sophisticated testing infrastructure. This focused mobile experience is central to its sticky user engagement and continued upselling opportunities, similar to how Apple retains its customers through ecosystem lock-in. The app serves both consumers and merchants through differentiated offerings and captures vast volumes of user data, which power AI-driven personalization features akin to Amazon’s recommendation engine or Duolingo’s user engagement experiments.
Kaspi’s Payments and Marketplace segments generate the highest profit margins, while the E-grocery segment is a lower-margin initiative but strategically valuable in expanding its ecosystem. Its investment into free delivery via a national network of postomats has significantly increased app usage and customer satisfaction, proving the company’s strategic foresight. Financially, Kaspi is extremely sound, with a healthy balance sheet, prudent debt management, and strong profitability metrics. Its gross, operating, and profit margins are enviable and consistently improving, showcasing operational excellence and scalability. Compared to regional and global peers, Kaspi stands out with superior efficiency metrics, which should not be overlooked by investors.
The company’s dominant position in Kazakhstan gives it monopoly-like market power, particularly in the fintech and e-commerce verticals. With high monthly active users and virtually unmatched customer loyalty, it would be difficult for new entrants—even global players like Amazon—to make significant inroads without a disruptive strategy. Even if Kaspi were to lose market share in one vertical, its multi-pronged platform ensures resiliency through diversification, giving it a clear structural advantage in a relatively insulated market. That said, investors must consider the inherent risks of investing in emerging markets. Kaspi’s filings explicitly mention geopolitical risks, terrorism, natural disasters, and other regional instabilities as material risks to operations. Kazakhstan’s proximity to Russia and lack of NATO protection could present black swan geopolitical risks, although none are imminent today.
Valuation scenarios further support Kaspi as a potentially undervalued growth asset. Assuming no revenue growth, the intrinsic value still sits significantly above current market prices. Modest revenue growth of 4% places the fair value around KZT 237,38, while more optimistic assumptions (15% revenue CAGR) suggest valuations north of KZT 602,05. Even conservative models like the Benjamin Graham approach imply a fair valuation between KZT 314,18 and 546,13 reinforcing the asymmetric risk/reward setup. Kaspi.kz stands out as a financially strong and highly profitable company operating within a rapidly expanding digital economy. Despite its impressive track record and ongoing growth, investors must weigh geopolitical concerns—particularly Kazakhstan’s proximity to Russia and its reliance on Russian energy—when evaluating the opportunity. Although Kazakhstan is not a NATO member and maintains complex historical ties with Russia, it remains an independent nation with its own governance. While the geopolitical context raises valid concerns, Kaspi.kz’s strong fundamentals and growth potential continue to make it an attractive opportunity for investors who are comfortable navigating the risks inherent in emerging markets.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held KSPI at the end of the fourth quarter which was 26 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of KSPI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than KSPI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
