During the September 8 episode of Mad Money, Jim Cramer said Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) may have limited downside after the stock suffered its steepest one-day decline in more than two decades following disappointing cardiovascular trial results from Novartis.
Finally, there’s Amgen. Admittedly, this one takes a little bit of fortitude. It was down 44 points today. The stock’s declining because it has a drug candidate that’s similar to a Novartis product which failed a cardiovascular trial today, sending the stock down $22. Novartis had high hopes for the drug testing for its heart attack and for stroke. We won’t get a readout on Amgen’s similar pipeline drug until 2027 or 2028, and it’s slightly different. But with this decline, Amgen could remove that drug from its portfolio and the stock probably wouldn’t go down all that much more.
Why Amgen Stock Crashed After Novartis’ Failed Lp(a) Trial
AMGN shares fell $44.06, or 10.08%, to close at $393.17 on September 8, marking the stock’s worst one-day decline since October 2000. Amgen Inc. is developing olpasiran, an investigational treatment designed to reduce lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), a genetically influenced blood particle associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease.
Its Phase 3 OCEAN(a)-Outcomes trial is evaluating whether olpasiran reduces coronary heart disease death, heart attack or urgent coronary revascularization in patients with established cardiovascular disease and elevated Lp(a). The drugs are different. Reuters reported that olpasiran produced greater Lp(a) reductions in earlier studies and is being tested in more targeted patient groups. Amgen’s Phase 3 data is expected in 2028.
Repatha Gives Investors Another Cardiovascular Growth Driver
On August 31, Amgen Inc. reported that a prespecified VESALIUS-CV analysis found Repatha reduced the risk of death by 20% in more than 12,000 high-risk patients without a prior heart attack or stroke. The broader VESALIUS-CV trial previously showed a 25% relative reduction in the risk of coronary heart disease death, heart attack or ischemic stroke. The cardiovascular drug also remains a growing commercial product for the company. Repatha sales rose 37% year over year to $953 million in the second quarter. The company’s total revenue increased 10% to $10.1 billion, and the company maintained 2026 revenue guidance of $38.2 billion to $39.4 billion.
Bear Case After the Novartis Setback
Novartis’ result provides the clearest near-term risk to Amgen Inc.’s Lp(a) program because pelacarsen reduced Lp(a) but failed to reduce cardiovascular events in its Phase 3 trial. The company has not yet reported Phase 3 cardiovascular outcomes for olpasiran. The timing leaves the key clinical evidence for olpasiran ahead. OCEAN(a)-Outcomes remains ongoing, while the PreEvent and CCTA studies are also underway. Reuters reported that detailed results from the Novartis trial are expected at a medical conference later this year.
BMO Capital analyst Evan Seigerman downgraded Amgen to Market Perform from Outperform on September 8 while maintaining its $450 price target. Moreover, recently, Citi analyst Geoff Meacham said Amgen’s olpasiran faced the clearest risk from the Novartis result, while noting that differences in study design could offer some differentiation.
Amgen Hedge Fund Holdings and Short Interest
Insider Monkey, which tracks more than 1,000 hedge funds, counted 66 hedge fund holders of Amgen in the second quarter, compared with 65 in the first quarter. Of those hedge funds, Fisher Asset Management was the quarter’s top shareholder with nearly 1.6 million shares. Short interest data from multiple sources put its short interest at approximately 2.2% to 2.25% of the float.
Cramer’s view is that if Amgen Inc. removes olpasiran from its portfolio, the stock “probably wouldn’t go down all that much more.” The company’s existing products and the outcome of its ongoing olpasiran studies remain separate considerations for investors.
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