We recently compiled a list of the Jim Cramer Wants You to Check These 10 Stocks. In this article, we are going to take a look at where NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stands against the Jim Cramer-approved stocks.
Jim Cramer noticed a strange pattern during the recent winning streak last week. According to Cramer, when a company reported earnings that were better than expected, its stock price would rise significantly. Even if the results were just a bit better than feared, the stock still went up. Conversely, if a company posted disappointing earnings, the market largely ignored it, believing it was just a temporary setback because the Fed might soon cut interest rates. This led to continued buying. However, this trend changed today as reality began to take hold.
“You see, we had a very odd pattern during the winning streak. It was a bit of Pangloss and a nip of Camelot. When a company reported a better-than-expected quarter, it was great. When a company reported a quarter that was just better than feared, the stock still rose. And when a company reported a bad quarter, we decided that it was the last bad quarter because the Fed was about to cut rates, so it was no big deal—buy anyway. In other words, companies could do no wrong, but not today. Today, we had a bit of a reckoning, a dose of reality.”
Jim Cramer pointed out that Tuesday’s market drop was anticipated because the S&P had been rising for eight straight days, and a ninth day would have been unusual, something not seen since 2004. The day was challenging, with the Dow falling 62 points and the S&P dropping 2%, which felt like a bigger loss. This raises concerns about whether the market can continue to rise, especially since negative news finally led to a decline after a strong eight-day rally.
“We were due for today’s modest pullback—the S&P had been up for eight straight days, and nine straight would have put us in rarefied territory. We haven’t seen that kind of winning streak since 2004. Today’s session was rough, with the Dow off by 62 points and the S&P dipping 2%, like losing 33%. We have to wonder if the market still has the momentum to go higher because today we got bad news, and guess what—stocks actually went down. That didn’t happen much during the 8-day gain.”
Jim Cramer observed that the market had been in a phase where strong performance drove stock prices up, and even poor results were overlooked because of the belief that the Fed would intervene. However, after seven days of gains, he suggested that this optimistic trend might be ending. The market has now reached a point where stocks no longer automatically benefit from positive bias.
“People had been reporting a perfect market scenario where good performance led to stock gains, and poor performance was cushioned by expectations that the Fed would step in to save the day. But after seven relentlessly positive days, we have to accept that stocks may no longer get the benefit of the doubt. We’ve reached a point where the market is sufficiently elevated, and we’re back to business as usual—where the good stocks rise, and the bad ones fall. At these high levels, we can’t just dismiss the bears with “heads I win, tails you lose.” There’s a return to rationality, and rationality is the enemy of a market where everything rallies indiscriminately.”
Cramer also mentioned that many investors are hoping for the Fed to step in during their meeting at Jackson Hole on Friday. If those expectations aren’t met, there could be significant selling pressure, particularly on a summer Friday. He noted that Lowe’s recently suffered because the market might be entering a phase where multiple rate cuts are necessary, but there’s no clear indication that such cuts are on the way. Without them, the company may struggle to turn its business around quickly.
“It doesn’t help that many expect the Fed cavalry to show up on Friday when they head to Jackson Hole. If things don’t go as expected, there could be a lot of selling, especially since it’s a summer Friday.”
Our Methodology
In this article, we analyzed a recent episode of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money and selected ten stocks he talked about. We also included information on how hedge funds feel about each stock and ranked them based on the number of hedge funds that own them, from the fewest to the most.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
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NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Number of Hegde Fund Investors: 179
Jim Cramer discussed NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s dominant position in the market, comparing it to a king with the rest of the market’s stocks as its pawns. He expressed concerns about the pressure on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), questioning whether it can maintain its leading role without experiencing significant setbacks. Cramer noted that, based on Larry Williams’ analysis, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) might face a peak and subsequent decline in the near term.
Cramer highlighted that NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s current chart suggests a peak might occur next week, potentially leading to a sell-off that could extend through mid to late October. He acknowledged that while he hopes Larry’s prediction is wrong, the analysis provides a valid basis for considering a possible downturn, especially if NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s future outlook does not meet expectations.
“I almost feel like you can guess it—it’s Nvidia. It’s the king, and the rest of the market is made up of its pawns, marching to Nvidia’s drum. Remember this morning when I was on the call and said, “Look, Nvidia is almost too important. There’s too much pressure on Nvidia—can it sustain it? I don’t want Nvidia to be Samson.”
Take a look at this daily chart of Nvidia, going back to February. By the way, Larry, who advised selling Nvidia just before it peaked in the spring, predicted the stock would rise again in late May. Larry and his video calls have closely tracked the stock’s short-term cycle in red, which has followed the share price surprisingly well.
Unfortunately, the short-term cycle now projects that Nvidia should peak sometime next week, leading to a sell-off that may extend through mid to late October. Nvidia reports next week, and the long-term cycle indicates a bottom around the same time. Given that Larry sees Nvidia as the lynchpin of the market, it makes sense that the cycle forecast predicts a downturn for Nvidia, aligning with expectations for the S&P 500.
Yes, Nvidia is that influential. The chart interpreted by Larry Williams suggests that we might experience some pain as August ends, which could continue through mid to late October. I hope he’s wrong this time, but it’s wise to consider his analysis seriously. For my money, there’s a good chance he could be right, especially if Nvidia’s outlook isn’t strong.”
In the second quarter of 2024, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) achieved revenue of $13.5 billion, a 20% increase from the previous year, and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.08, surpassing analysts’ expectations by 10%. This solid performance highlights the company’s effective growth strategy. A key driver of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s positive outlook is its leading role in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s GPUs, including the A100 and H100 series, are critical for AI training and inference, positioning NVIDIA as a major player in the AI industry. Additionally, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s data center business, which generated $8.5 billion in Q2 2024, has grown significantly due to the rising demand for AI and machine learning technologies.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s market position is further strengthened by strategic partnerships with top tech companies such as Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), boosting its market reach and growth opportunities. The acquisition of Mellanox Technologies also enhances its data center capabilities, setting up the company for continued expansion. With the global semiconductor market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% through 2028, driven by AI and data center needs, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
Overall NVDA ranks 1st on our list of the stocks Jim Cramer wants you to check out. While we acknowledge the potential of NVDA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NVDA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.