During the September 9 episode of Mad Money, Jim Cramer called Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) a “perfect bellwether,” as he said:
When the war started, we had 415 million barrels of oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That number fell to 286 million at the end of August, 31% decline. I know that still leaves plenty of crude, but I think that we now need to be on some sort of oil watch countdown. Wall Street analysts will soon be telling you what day the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will run out of oil. And it will. The climbing gas prices have been steady. Premium’s $5.12 on average. Diesel, record $5.94. And that is passed through, believe me. I always tell you that we’re a service economy, and the service economy may be about to sputter. The stocks of the retail complex are certainly predicting that exact thing, even the most reliable of chains. Take an outfit like Casey’s General, okay? It flubbed this morning, sending the stock down more than 14%. Okay, you think you haven’t heard of it? It has 3,000 stores, people. And it is a perfect bellwether because it sells gasoline on the outside, then it’s all that, got all that convenience store stuff on the inside: snacks, beer (beer’s selling really badly), beverages, the breakfast pizza, which I love so much.
Management was quite upbeat about the numbers. However, you can’t help but notice that when the price of fuel goes up, people spend less money in the stores. And the inside same store sales growth fell from 5.5% last quarter to just 3.2% this quarter… So, Wall Street came up to a simple conclusion. It just chose not to pay any attention to management’s commentary about how strong certain snacks were or how, by the way, ready-to-drink liquor did quite well even when beer was bad. Instead, the market decided that the price of oil’s gotten too expensive and it’s now causing a decline in sales of staples, which has been my biggest fear since the Iranians closed the Strait, and now it seems to be happening. This is the first tangible sign that gasoline is now finally having a real deleterious impact on the economy. The Street was quick to send down anything retail today.
Casey’s Earnings Show Slower Inside Sales
Casey’s General Stores, Inc. reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of $5.678 billion, up 24.3% year over year, while diluted EPS increased 27.7% to $7.37. Net income rose 27.1% to $273.7 million. Inside same-store sales increased 3.2%, down from 4.3% a year earlier. Grocery and general merchandise same-store sales rose 2.7% compared to 3.8% a year earlier, while prepared food and dispensed beverage same-store sales increased 4.8%. The company said prepared food and dispensed beverage sales were driven primarily by positive traffic, led by whole pizzas. Fuel also contributed to earnings growth. Same-store gallons sold declined 0.3%, but fuel gross profit increased 19.6% to $446.9 million, while fuel margin rose to 47.8 cents per gallon from 41 cents a year earlier.
Bear Case Rests on Inside Sales and Fuel Margins
The bearish case centers on slower inside sales and the volatility of fuel margins. Casey’s General Stores, Inc. generated higher fuel profits despite selling fewer same-store gallons, while the 47.8-cent margin was 6.8 cents higher than a year earlier. Management described the fuel environment as volatile. CEO Darren Rebelez said customers were responding to higher fuel prices with “fewer gallons per trip, but more trips made.” He also said customers were moving away from premium and mid-grade gasoline toward regular and higher-ethanol blends.
It is worth noting that Casey’s traded at a forward P/E of 30.21 as of September 9. Operating expenses rose 8% in the quarter. The company maintained its fiscal 2027 outlook, including inside same-store sales growth of 2% to 5%, same-store fuel gallons between negative 1% and positive 1%, and EBITDA growth of 8% to 10%.
Hedge Funds Increase
Insider Monkey, which tracks more than 1,000 hedge funds, reported that 48 hedge funds held Casey’s in the second quarter of 2026, up from 43 in the first quarter. Of those hedge funds, Marshall Wace LLP was the top shareholder with 426,104 shares in the quarter. Additionally, AQR Capital Management increased its position in the stock by 195% to 213,943 shares. Short interest remained relatively limited at roughly 3.1% to 3.8% of the float.
Casey’s General Stores, Inc. delivered strong earnings growth, but the slowdown in inside same-store sales has shifted attention toward whether comparable sales can remain within the company’s 2% to 5% fiscal 2027 outlook while fuel margins remain volatile. Shares closed at $629.03 on September 9, down 14.24% for the session.
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