Is YPF a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on YPF Sociedad Anónima on Danny’s Substack by Danny Green. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on YPF. YPF Sociedad Anónima’s share was trading at $40.98 as of April 20th. YPF’s trailing and forward P/E were 11.70 and 8.20 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. YPF presents a compelling, though nuanced, economic moat anchored in its dominant position within the Vaca Muerta shale formation—one of the largest and most economically attractive unconventional resource basins globally. The company controls the largest acreage position with a deep inventory of high-quality drilling locations, creating a scarce, irreplaceable geological advantage that competitors cannot replicate.
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This is reinforced by decades of infrastructure buildout, including pipelines, refining capacity, and a nationwide fuel distribution network commanding roughly 55% market share, alongside operational expertise reflected in industry-leading lifting costs of $4.4/BOE—well below global peers. While other major players operate in Vaca Muerta, YPF’s scale, cost leadership, and integrated infrastructure position it to disproportionately benefit as the ecosystem expands.
Beyond resource dominance, YPF benefits from long-duration concessions, regulatory tailwinds under Argentina’s RIGI framework, and deep national integration, effectively making it a systemically critical energy provider. This creates a unique “sovereign dependency moat,” where the Argentine economy relies heavily on YPF’s output, limiting downside scenarios. Pricing power, historically constrained, has materially improved under deregulation, with fuel prices now aligned to import parity and export volumes rising at international benchmarks.
Although state ownership introduces governance complexity, recent leadership under CEO Horacio Marín has driven a sharp operational turnaround, including record EBITDA, disciplined capital allocation, and a strategic pivot toward high-return shale assets. With improving returns, declining structural inefficiencies, and transformational upside from the Argentina LNG project, YPF combines world-class resource economics with multiple catalysts, positioning it as a high-quality, undervalued energy platform with significant long-term upside potential.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) by Magnus Ofstad in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s low-cost Permian Basin assets, diversified business model, and long-term upside from carbon capture initiatives like the Stratos project. OXY’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 26.57% since our coverage. Danny Green shares a similar view but emphasizes on YPF’s dominant Vaca Muerta position and sovereign-backed moat.
YPF Sociedad Anónima is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 18 hedge fund portfolios held YPF at the end of the fourth quarter which was 16 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of YPF as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than YPF and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
