Is SKYT a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on SkyWater Technology, Inc. on The Mispricing Desk’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SKYT. SkyWater Technology, Inc.’s share was trading at $36.85 as of June 8th. SKYT’s trailing and forward P/E were 16.22 and 185.19 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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SkyWater Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides semiconductor manufacturing services in the United States. SKYT is framed as a catalyst-driven merger arbitrage opportunity centered on its acquisition by IonQ, where valuation is driven by deal mechanics and spread convergence rather than pure quantum sentiment.
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Under the agreement, shareholders receive $35.00 per share comprising $15.00 cash and a stock component linked to IonQ’s trading within a defined collar, making final value partially path-dependent but structurally convergent toward closing as VWAP remains within the specified band.
The current discount reflects uncertainty around shareholder approval, regulatory clearance including HSR timing, and short-term IonQ volatility affecting the stock portion, but the upcoming vote serves as a near-term catalyst that reduces binary risk and accelerates repricing toward deal value realization. SkyWater strengthens the thesis as a U.S. advanced semiconductor foundry with expanding revenue, improving profitability, and exposure to quantum and defense manufacturing, supporting IonQ’s broader ecosystem buildout, while IonQ’s liquidity and balance sheet support transaction credibility despite earnings volatility.
As a result, the spread is better understood as timing and structure risk rather than fundamental deterioration, with market participants primarily pricing the path dependency of the collar and the interim volatility of the acquirer rather than questioning deal value itself.
As approval milestones progress and collar mechanics stabilize, the merger arbitrage spread is expected to compress toward full consideration realization, creating an asymmetric profile where downside is anchored by cash while upside converges toward deal value and potential rerating upon successful completion and integration, with additional upside optionality if post-close synergies and strategic semiconductor positioning are more fully recognized by the market.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on SkyWater Technology, Inc. (SKYT) by TheUndefinedMystic in January 2025, which highlighted its role as a U.S.-owned pure-play silicon foundry enabling quantum computing via strategic partnerships and photonics exposure. SKYT’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 218.77% since our coverage. The Mispricing Desk shares a similar view but emphasizes a merger arbitrage setup with IonQ, focusing on deal mechanics, collar-linked consideration, and spread convergence rather than long-term quantum ecosystem optionality.
SkyWater Technology, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 33 hedge fund portfolios held SKYT at the end of the first quarter which was 24 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of SKYT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SKYT and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
