Is FOUR a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Shift4 Payments, Inc. on Modern Value Investing’s Substack by Value Investigator. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FOUR. Shift4 Payments, Inc.’s share was trading at $48.01 as of April 15th. FOUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 44.45 and 8.61 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) is a vertically integrated payments and commerce platform focused on complex, high-volume environments such as restaurants, hotels, stadiums, and luxury retail, where it embeds payments directly into mission-critical software. Its flagship product, SkyTab, exemplifies this model by offering cloud-based point-of-sale solutions with minimal upfront cost, monetized through 50–60 basis points on payment volume, creating high switching costs and driving rapid adoption with over 1,300 new merchants added monthly.
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The company’s strategy centers on acquiring platforms with established merchant bases, such as Appetize, Vectron, and Finaro, and integrating its payments stack to convert distribution into recurring, high-margin revenue. This playbook has driven strong financial performance, with Gross Revenue Less Network Fees compounding at 39% annually since 2021, EBITDA margins expanding to nearly 50%, and free cash flow reaching $500 million in 2025.
While 2026 guidance implies temporary margin compression due to the $2.5 billion Global Blue acquisition, this reflects upfront integration costs and investments to unlock a unique global opportunity. Global Blue adds 400,000 merchant locations and positions Shift4 to offer a differentiated all-in-one solution combining tax-free shopping, payments, and currency conversion, alongside partnerships with Alipay+ and WeChat Pay.
Despite near-term dilution, management expects synergies to drive margin expansion and cash flow acceleration over time. With a clear path toward $1 billion in free cash flow and an active share repurchase program enhancing per-share value, Shift4 appears significantly undervalued at current levels, offering a compelling long-term compounder with substantial upside potential.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) by Next 100 Baggers in May 2025, which highlighted strong payment volume growth, expanding EBITDA margins, aggressive M&A-led expansion, and global rollout through SkyTab and acquisitions. FOUR’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 42.33% since our coverage. Value Investigator shares a similar view but emphasizes vertically integrated payments, Global Blue expansion, and free cash flow conversion as key rerating drivers.
Shift4 Payments, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 49 hedge fund portfolios held FOUR at the end of the fourth quarter which was 45 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of FOUR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than FOUR and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
