Is PGY a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Pagaya Technologies Ltd. on MVC Investing’s Substack by M. V. Cunha. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on PGY. Pagaya Technologies Ltd.’s share was trading at $13.60 as of April 24th. PGY’s trailing and forward P/E were 14.61 and 4.69 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors in the United States and internationally.
PGY reported mixed Q4 2025 results, with revenue of $335M (+20% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $98M (+53% YoY), both slightly below expectations, while GAAP net income reached a record $34M, supported by one-off benefits. Network volume grew just 3% YoY to $2.7B, reflecting a deliberate late-quarter decision to reduce exposure to higher-risk lending tiers amid macro uncertainty and shifting partner risk appetite.
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Management emphasized that this was a proactive trade-off, prioritizing long-term stability over short-term growth, with credit performance remaining in line with expectations. Excluding non-core segments, underlying volume growth remained strong, while margins and operating efficiency improved meaningfully, with clear operating leverage as expenses declined despite revenue growth.
The company continues to guide conservatively for 2026, expecting $1.4–1.575B in revenue and $100–150M in GAAP net income, reflecting caution around macro conditions despite stable consumer credit trends. Strategically, Pagaya is strengthening its funding model through forward-flow and revolving structures, expanding capacity to ~$3B while reducing volatility and improving visibility.
Operationally, the platform is scaling with a record onboarding pipeline, deeper multi-product adoption, and increasing contribution from newer offerings beyond decline monetization, enhancing partner stickiness and long-term earnings power.
While near-term growth is moderated by disciplined risk management and external uncertainty, the business is more resilient and profitable, with management targeting 15–20% long-term growth. Despite weak sentiment and a sharp stock reaction, valuation appears compelling, supported by improved fundamentals and potential upside as macro conditions stabilize.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) by Unconventional Value in February 2025, which highlighted the company’s AI-driven lending model, network expansion, and ability to unlock underserved credit markets. PGY’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 20.24% since our coverage. M. V. Cunha shares a similar view but emphasizes on disciplined risk management and improving profitability.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 41 hedge fund portfolios held PGY at the end of the fourth quarter which was 38 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of PGY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PGY and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
